The U.S. and other of China's largest trading partners have been arguing for years now that revaluing the yuan would be good for China's economy. Sure, China might lose some jobs in the export sector as the yuan became more expensive in dollar and euro terms. But it would make up for that disadvantage by boosting the purchasing power of Chinese consumers -- whose purchases would create jobs in other sectors of the economy, especially services.

　　多年來，美國(guó)和中國(guó)其它一些主要貿(mào)易伙伴一直在說人民幣升值對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)有利。人民幣兌美元和歐元升值后，中國(guó)的出口部門可能會(huì)損失一些工作崗位，但中國(guó)消費(fèi)者購(gòu)買力的增強(qiáng)又可以彌補(bǔ)這種劣勢(shì)，因?yàn)橘?gòu)買力的增強(qiáng)可以在經(jīng)濟(jì)中的其它部門創(chuàng)造就業(yè)，尤其是服務(wù)業(yè)。

　　A new International Monetary Fund report, however, warns China against expecting such a happy outcome.

　　Doug Kanter/Bloomberg News在中國(guó)，農(nóng)業(yè)將成為唯一不受人民幣匯率升值影響的行業(yè)？但國(guó)際貨幣基金組織（International Monetary Fund，簡(jiǎn)稱：IMF）最近出版的一份報(bào)告卻告誡中國(guó)，人民幣升值的后果可能沒有上面描述的那么美好。

　　A 10% increase in the value of the yuan, adjusted for inflation, would reduce employment growth by 0.4 to 1.4 percentage points "across sectors except for agriculture," calculate IMF economists Ruo Chen and Mai Dao. Employment growth would slow not only in the export industry but in service industries too.

　　IMF的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家Ruo Chen和Mai Dao測(cè)算后得出，經(jīng)通脹因素調(diào)整后，人民幣若升值10%，那么非農(nóng)行業(yè)的就業(yè)增長(zhǎng)率將降低0.4%，至1.4%。換句話說，不僅出口部門的就業(yè)增長(zhǎng)率會(huì)降低，服務(wù)業(yè)也會(huì)。

　　Why would appreciation cause an across-the-board slowdown in job growth? The authors say that services and manufacturing aren't as distinct as they seem. The cost of exported manufactured goods includes a range of services, including banking, transport, retailing and energy. "Thus if a real appreciation leads to a contraction in tradable sectors"--i.e., manufactured goods for export -- "the ensuing negative effect on demand for intermediate input can lead to a decrease in employment in non-tradable sectors as well."

　　為什么人民幣升值會(huì)導(dǎo)致就業(yè)增長(zhǎng)率的全面下降？?jī)晌蛔髡哒f，服務(wù)業(yè)和制造業(yè)并非像看上去的那樣毫無關(guān)聯(lián)。出口的工業(yè)制成品的成本包括一系列服務(wù)，其中涉及銀行業(yè)、運(yùn)輸業(yè)、零售業(yè)以及能源業(yè)。因此，如果人民幣的實(shí)際升值導(dǎo)致貿(mào)易部門的收縮，比如工業(yè)制成品出口量下降，中間投入需求因此下降，非貿(mào)易部門的就業(yè)增長(zhǎng)率最終也會(huì)跟著下降。

　　In other words, fewer jobs in the Chinese export toy business means fewer jobs in banks, trucks, utilities and wholesalers that supply the toy manufacturers.

　　換句話說，中國(guó)玩具出口業(yè)的就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)減少，意味著給玩具廠商提供各種服務(wù)的銀行業(yè)、運(yùn)輸業(yè)、公用事業(yè)部門以及批發(fā)商的就業(yè)崗位也會(huì)跟著減少。

　　The authors, who several times call their conclusion a "surprise," say that they were looking at the short-term job effects. The work was conducted as part of the IMF's annual review of China's economy, which is due to be released in mid-July.

　　兩位作者多次將他們的結(jié)論稱作“意外的發(fā)現(xiàn)”，并說他們觀察的只是人民幣升值對(duì)就業(yè)市場(chǎng)的短期影響。這項(xiàng)研究是IMF對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)年度審核的組成部分，研究成果將于今年7月中旬發(fā)布。

　　Over the longer term, some economists argue, China would be better off relying on domestic demand and service companies, rather than export companies whose fate is tied to the ups and downs of the U.S. economy. But, like all countries, China worries more about short-term employment effects than long-term theories about restructuring.

　　從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來看，一些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為，中國(guó)依靠國(guó)內(nèi)消費(fèi)和服務(wù)業(yè)而非與美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)息息相關(guān)的出口業(yè)會(huì)更為有利。但是，和所有其它國(guó)家一樣，相對(duì)于有關(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型的長(zhǎng)期理論，中國(guó)更擔(dān)心就業(yè)受到的短期影響。

　　Currently, China is letting its currency rise about 0.5% a month against the dollar. If China focuses even more on the job effects of its foreign-exchange rate policy, don't expect a big change in the pace of change.

　　目前，人民幣對(duì)美元的月度升值幅度大約為0.5%。假如中國(guó)更在意匯率政策對(duì)就業(yè)的影響，那么就別指望人民幣的升值速度會(huì)明顯加快。