With continuing uncertainty in the markets and escalating concerns about the global economic outlook, what policy measures might China take in the event of a double-dip recession in the US or Europe?

　　市場(chǎng)中的不確定性持續(xù)存在，對(duì)于全球經(jīng)濟(jì)前景的擔(dān)憂也日益加劇，如果美國(guó)或歐洲出現(xiàn)二次探底，中國(guó)應(yīng)采取哪些政策措施？

　　During the downturn of 2008-09, China stood out as the bright spot, contributing to over 50 percent of global growth in 2009 as spending on stimulus-related infrastructure projects got under way. Chinese growth has gradually become less reliant on the contribution of trade, while the proportion of the country’s exports destined for the US and the eurozone has been declining.

　　在2008年至2009年的經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷期間，中國(guó)成為了一個(gè)醒目的亮點(diǎn)，隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激相關(guān)的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施項(xiàng)目投資的實(shí)施，中國(guó)在2009年貢獻(xiàn)了全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的50%。中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)對(duì)于貿(mào)易貢獻(xiàn)的依賴(lài)程度已逐漸降低，而中國(guó)出口中面向美國(guó)和歐元區(qū)的比例也在不斷下降。

　　Many of the investment projects that featured in China’s 2008 stimulus package had been planned for some time, but were brought forward as a response to the external downturn. Existing fiscal policy initiatives are already stimulative.

　　中國(guó)2008年刺激方案中的許多投資項(xiàng)目，此前已規(guī)劃了一段時(shí)間，只是為了應(yīng)對(duì)外部經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷而提前實(shí)施。現(xiàn)有的財(cái)政政策舉措已經(jīng)具有刺激作用。

　　According to the 12th five-year plan, China will invest as much as Rmb7,000bn in the construction of urban public facilities over the next five years. With the risk of a double dip rising, the central government would most likely focus on ensuring sufficient financing for existing investment projects before contemplating a second major stimulus package.

　　根據(jù)“十二五規(guī)劃”，中國(guó)將在未來(lái)五年中投入7萬(wàn)億元，用于城市公共設(shè)施建設(shè)。隨著二次探底的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)加大，中央政府最有可能專(zhuān)注于確保目前現(xiàn)有投資項(xiàng)目有充足的資金，然后才會(huì)考慮實(shí)施第二輪大規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激措施。

　　This is especially likely at a time when policymakers are focused on containing the risks associated with local government debt and an imbalanced property market, both issues that were aggravated by the last stimulus campaign.

　　當(dāng)前政策制定者關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn)，在于遏制與地方政府債務(wù)和失衡的房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)相關(guān)的種種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，而這兩個(gè)問(wèn)題，都因?yàn)樯弦惠喗?jīng)濟(jì)刺激舉措而有所加劇。在這種情況下，出現(xiàn)以上情形的可能性極大。

　　A second large stimulus programme would exacerbate these risks and intensify the imbalances that the government is trying to curb during the 12th five-year plan. After last month’s train collision in eastern China, it also appears that authorities have been reconsidering the pace of the nation’s infrastructure development.

　　第二輪大規(guī)模刺激措施會(huì)推升上述風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，加劇政府試圖在“十二五”期間遏制的多種失衡問(wèn)題。上月中國(guó)東部地區(qū)發(fā)生動(dòng)車(chē)追尾事故以來(lái)，官方似乎也在重新思考中國(guó)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施發(fā)展的步伐問(wèn)題。

　　With China’s fiscal manoeuvrability somewhat constrained, the more constructive approach to meeting some of the challenges is to accelerate reforms that aim to stimulate domestic consumption.

　　由于中國(guó)財(cái)政方面的操作空間多少受到了局限，要應(yīng)對(duì)以上某些挑戰(zhàn)，更具建設(shè)性的途徑是加速旨在刺激國(guó)內(nèi)消費(fèi)的改革。

　　Many pro-consumption initiatives have been introduced, including an undertaking to increase the availability of affordable housing, healthcare reforms to make basic services and drugs more accessible, and an increase in the personal income tax threshold. These and other initiatives will liberate a greater portion of disposable income.

　　中國(guó)已經(jīng)推出了許多旨在促進(jìn)消費(fèi)的舉措，其中包括采取措施提高廉價(jià)住房供應(yīng)量，開(kāi)展醫(yī)療改革、使得基本服務(wù)和藥物更容易獲得，以及提高個(gè)人所得稅起征點(diǎn)。以上種種舉措，連同其他做法，將釋放出更大比例的可支配收入。A more aggressive way of unlocking consumer spending would be to resume the process of interest rate reform. Strict controls over interest rates have pushed real savings growth into negative territory, forcing the average citizen to seek out alternative – riskier – means of preserving wealth, which in turn discourages spending, since personal net worth has become more volatile.

　　讓消費(fèi)支出擺脫束縛的另一種更加激進(jìn)的手段，是重啟利率改革進(jìn)程。對(duì)利率的嚴(yán)格管控，已使得實(shí)際存款增長(zhǎng)減速，迫使普通百姓尋求通過(guò)其他風(fēng)險(xiǎn)更大的方式，為自己的財(cái)富保值，這反過(guò)來(lái)又會(huì)抑制消費(fèi)，因?yàn)閭€(gè)人凈財(cái)富已變得更不穩(wěn)定。

　　To support growth without stoking inflation, China’s policymakers may also aim to improve the allocation of capital to the more efficient private sector.

　　為了既推動(dòng)增長(zhǎng)、又不加劇通脹，中國(guó)政策制定者或許也會(huì)有意改善資本配置狀況，側(cè)重效率更高的私營(yíng)部門(mén)。

　　At the corporate level, capital has historically been allocated inefficiently, with an imbalance in access to credit, i.e. large state-owned enterprises have the clout to obtain more favourable interest rates and terms whereas private companies – which account for 80 per cent of employment in China and 60 per cent of gross domestic product – lack the bargaining power to access cheaper bank credit.

　　在企業(yè)層面，由于信貸獲取方面的失衡，長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)資本配置效率較低。大型國(guó)有企業(yè)擁有影響力，可以獲得更為優(yōu)惠的利率和貸款條件。而提供著中國(guó)80%的就業(yè)崗位、貢獻(xiàn)了60%國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)的私營(yíng)企業(yè)，卻缺乏獲取廉價(jià)銀行信貸的談判能力。

　　There are signs that efforts to optimise the loan structure are having some effect. According to the People’s Bank of China, outstanding loans to small and medium-sized enterprises grew by 29.3 per cent and 17.8 per cent respectively last year, much faster than to large companies. The government has also differentiated reserve requirements for rural credit co-operatives and announced trial plans for SMEs to issue bonds in private placements.

　　有跡象表明，旨在優(yōu)化貸款結(jié)構(gòu)的舉措正在產(chǎn)生某些效果。中國(guó)人民銀行(PBoC)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，小企業(yè)和中型企業(yè)未償還貸款總額，去年分別同比增長(zhǎng)29.3%和17.8%，增幅遠(yuǎn)高于大型企業(yè)。政府還針對(duì)農(nóng)村信用合作社指定了差異化的準(zhǔn)備金要求，并公布了中小企業(yè)以定向募集方式發(fā)行債券的試行方案。

　　As China’s banks unleashed a flood of credit to stimulate the economy, an 87 per cent expansion in M2 money supply since January 2008 has given rise to stubborn inflation, which has been exacerbated by food supply disruptions and rising commodity prices.

　　由于中國(guó)各銀行投放了大量信貸以刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，自2008年1月以來(lái)，M2貨幣供應(yīng)量已擴(kuò)大了87%，這導(dǎo)致通貨膨脹居高不下，而糧食供應(yīng)問(wèn)題和大宗商品價(jià)格上漲也加劇了通脹。

　　Since the government is concerned that inflation could undermine social stability, we do not think policymakers will be inclined to let loose another torrent of credit, though there will be greater leeway to ease policy once inflation is seen to be under control.

　　 鑒于政府擔(dān)心通脹問(wèn)題可能影響社會(huì)穩(wěn)定，我們認(rèn)為政策制定者不會(huì)傾向于再次投放大量信貸，不過(guò)一旦認(rèn)為通脹已得到控制，將有較大的放松貨幣政策的余地。

　　Officials have indicated that they might resort to a form of “targeted easing”, meaning monetary policy could remain prudent in the second half but preferential credit terms would be available to projects relating to affordable housing, rural development and small businesses.

　　 一些官員表示，他們可能會(huì)訴諸于某種形式的“定向?qū)捤?rdquo;，即下半年會(huì)繼續(xù)保持審慎的貨幣政策，不過(guò)涉及廉價(jià)住房、農(nóng)村發(fā)展和中小企業(yè)的項(xiàng)目，會(huì)提供優(yōu)惠的信貸條件。

　　Continued government advocacy for socially important infrastructure will support demand for construction and building materials, while increasing purchasing power will boost household consumption.

　　 政府繼續(xù)鼓勵(lì)具有重要社會(huì)意義的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)，這將支撐對(duì)建筑與建材的需求，而購(gòu)買(mǎi)力的提升將推動(dòng)居民消費(fèi)。

　　Jing Ulrich is managing director and chairman of global markets, China at JPMorgan

　　作者李晶(Jing Ulrich)是摩根大通(JPMorgan)中國(guó)董事總經(jīng)理兼中國(guó)市場(chǎng)主席