美國就業(yè)情況報告好于預(yù)期，同時有跡象顯示制造業(yè)也開始恢復(fù)活力，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們由此相信經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇即將到來。但一個大問題依然存在：復(fù)蘇是否可持續(xù)。摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的伯納（Richard Berner）和格瑞勞（David Greenlaw）在不久前的一份研究報告中列出了經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)增長的三大要素。

　　1. 信貸市場日漸放松。隨著雷曼（Lehman）倒閉后的恐慌漸漸平息，各家銀行的放貸意愿又開始增強(qiáng)。伯納和格瑞勞說，當(dāng)前形勢正從惡性循環(huán)轉(zhuǎn)向良性循環(huán)。雖然貸款損失仍然存在，尤其是在抵押貸款方面，但他們預(yù)期收緊信貸條件的銀行會越來越少，將會有更多的資金進(jìn)入信貸系統(tǒng)。

　　2. 刺激措施正在發(fā)揮作用。政府的刺激計劃在危機(jī)正當(dāng)中時總是加碼最重的，更多蓄勢待發(fā)的項(xiàng)目以及全國性和地方性建設(shè)項(xiàng)目將在今年年底和明年啟動。這就意味著更多的經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)出以及與此相關(guān)的更多就業(yè)機(jī)會。

　　3.去庫存化活動減少。相對于銷售額，庫存量仍然過高。但這并不意味著生產(chǎn)完全停滯。只要各公司增產(chǎn)的速度低于需求增長，他們就可以繼續(xù)減少庫存，同時促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。

　　雖然“舊車換現(xiàn)金”項(xiàng)目帶來了強(qiáng)勁需求，但消費(fèi)前景仍然存在不確定性。但即便消費(fèi)下降，經(jīng)濟(jì)還是可以繼續(xù)增長，避免再度陷入衰退。只不過別指望經(jīng)濟(jì)能實(shí)現(xiàn)飛速擴(kuò)張。

　　Following a better-than-expected employment report and indications that the manufacturing sector is beginning to revive， economists have become more confident that recovery is coming. But the big questions remains： is a recovery sustainable. In a recent research report， Richard Berner and David Greenlaw of Morgan Stanley outline three keys to sustained growth.

　　1. Credit markets are loosening up. As the post-Lehman panic subsides banks are becoming more willing to lend again. Berner and Greenlaw say the cycle is moving from 'vicious to virtuous.' Despite continuing loan losses， especially in mortgages， they expect that fewer banks are tightening credit conditions and more money is on its way through the system.

　　2. Stimulus is coming online. The government's stimulus package was always designed to be heavier in the middle， and more shovel-ready projects and state and local construction will come online at the end of this year and into next. That means more output and more jobs associated with that output.

　　3. Reduced inventory liquidation. Inventories are still elevated when compared to sales. But that doesn't mean that output has to completely stall. As long as companies raise production less than demand they can continue to draw down inventories while contributing to growth.

　　Despite strong demand for the cash-for-clunkers program， the outlook for the consumer continues to be uncertain. But even with reduced consumption， the economy can continue to grow and avoid a double-dip recession. Just don't expect blockbuster expansion.