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隨著各公司忙著利用有史以來(lái)最低借貸成本的機(jī)會(huì),全球的公司債熱潮開(kāi)始升溫。
從全球巨頭麥當(dāng)勞(McDonald's Corp.)和金佰利(Kimberly-Clark Corp.)到印尼電信公司PT Indosat Tbk等都在忙著發(fā)行債券。
本月是有記錄以來(lái)美國(guó)垃圾級(jí)公司發(fā)行債券最忙碌的一個(gè)七月。亞洲的債市今年有望創(chuàng)下紀(jì)錄,歐洲公司也在飛快地籌集資金。
低借貸成本是一場(chǎng)前所未有的債市飆升的高潮,此次飆升始于2008年底、2009年初信貸危機(jī)最深重的時(shí)候,它一反各種預(yù)測(cè),并沒(méi)有很快失去勢(shì)頭。不過(guò),個(gè)人投資者和專業(yè)投資者繼續(xù)向債市投入資金,給了公司持續(xù)的資金流可以利用。
隨著每一輪新的上揚(yáng),債市價(jià)格上漲,而與債券價(jià)格反向而動(dòng)的利率則進(jìn)一步下滑。如果經(jīng)濟(jì)升溫、利率上升,大量買進(jìn)債券的投資者將在債券價(jià)格下滑時(shí)受到嚴(yán)重打擊。
不過(guò),目前為止,很多令債券大漲的條件依然發(fā)揮著作用。美國(guó)聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備委員會(huì)(Fed)將短期利率定為近零水平,投資者對(duì)股市心存謹(jǐn)慎,經(jīng)濟(jì)前景過(guò)于低迷,難以引發(fā)一輪強(qiáng)勁的股市飆升,不過(guò)還沒(méi)有糟到公司違約的地步。
無(wú)論大公司還是小公司都在利用低利率來(lái)提振資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表,接下來(lái)的幾年有望節(jié)省數(shù)百萬(wàn)美元利息成本。公用事業(yè)公司Duke Energy Indiana財(cái)務(wù)主管德梅(Stephen De May)說(shuō),我認(rèn)為,我們恰恰是在正確的時(shí)間開(kāi)始進(jìn)入市場(chǎng),這是一個(gè)非常好的時(shí)機(jī)。該公司的子公司在7月初時(shí)發(fā)債五億美元,利率為3.75%.據(jù)美國(guó)銀行美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)的數(shù)據(jù),這是有記錄以來(lái)美國(guó)大型借款公司中第四低的利率。
本周,麥當(dāng)勞發(fā)行了4.50億美元10年期債券,收益率為3.5%,這是有記錄以來(lái)美國(guó)借款公司發(fā)行的大規(guī)模債券中收益率最低的。5月份時(shí),10年期美國(guó)國(guó)債的利率為3.5%以上。
據(jù)巴克萊資本(Barclays Capital)說(shuō),投資級(jí)公司債的利率最近平均只有4%,這是六年多來(lái)的最低水平,只比相對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)較小的國(guó)債高出1.7個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。
較低的借貸成本對(duì)公司利潤(rùn)是好事,而公司利潤(rùn)對(duì)整體經(jīng)濟(jì)和就業(yè)又會(huì)帶來(lái)好處。Duke Energy Indiana用發(fā)行債券所得來(lái)為發(fā)電廠建設(shè)等項(xiàng)目提供資金。
不過(guò),很多公司發(fā)債只是為原有的債務(wù)再融資。很多公司任由資金在資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表上擱著,以備未來(lái)發(fā)生新危機(jī)或增長(zhǎng)放緩時(shí)之需。這意味著,借貸潮對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來(lái)的好處可能是有限的。
巴克萊資本Americas Investment Grade Syndicate負(fù)責(zé)人Justin D'Ercole說(shuō),他們并不是要投資,或是用資產(chǎn)來(lái)試圖建立自己的業(yè)務(wù)。他幫助公司發(fā)行新債。
據(jù)數(shù)據(jù)提供商Dealogic的數(shù)據(jù),今年截至目前,全球公司債的發(fā)行規(guī)模已達(dá)到約1.4萬(wàn)億美元,較2009年同期創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的2.1萬(wàn)億美元有所不及。不過(guò),5月份和6月份的部分時(shí)間,債券發(fā)行基本暫停,原因是歐洲的主權(quán)債務(wù)危機(jī)愈演愈烈。
隨著更多的投資者涌入債市,助推債券發(fā)行的熱潮,隨之增大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是他們只是在涌向最新的泡沫。觀察人士質(zhì)疑市場(chǎng)是否能繼續(xù)產(chǎn)生這樣的回報(bào),猜測(cè)投資者是否為仍有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的公司債支付了過(guò)高的價(jià)格。投資管理公司Thornburg Investment Management投資組合經(jīng)理布雷迪(Jason Brady)說(shuō),我研究了麥當(dāng)勞的債券,感覺(jué)就像連續(xù)吃了五個(gè)巨無(wú)霸。麥當(dāng)勞是家優(yōu)秀企業(yè),不過(guò)我沒(méi)必要為了區(qū)區(qū)3.5%的利率而冒著風(fēng)險(xiǎn)持有一家低A評(píng)級(jí)公司的債券。
The global corporate-bond boom is gathering steam as companies rush to take advantage of some of the lowest borrowing costs in history.
Companies from global giants McDonald's Corp. and Kimberly-Clark Corp. to Indonesian telecommunications company PT Indosat Tbk are rushing to sell debt.
This month has been the busiest July on record for sales by U.S. companies with junk-credit ratings. Asia's debt market is on pace for a record year,and European companies are also raising money apace.
The low borrowing costs are the culmination of an unprecedented bond-market rally that began in the depths of the credit crisis in late 2008 and early 2009 and has defied every prediction that it would soon run out of steam. But individual and professional investors continue to plow money into the bond market,giving companies a constant source of funds to tap.
With each new leg higher,the bond market gets more expensive and interest rates,which move in the opposite direction of price,fall even lower. If the economy heats up and rates rise,investors gobbling up bonds will get burned as bond prices fall.
But for now,many of the conditions that got bonds rolling in the first place still hold sway. The Federal Reserve has short-term interest rates near zero,investors are leery of stocks,and the economic outlook is too sluggish to spark a robust stock boom but not so bad that it causes companies to default.
Companies big and small are taking advantage of the low rates to bolster their balance sheets and lower their interest costs by millions of dollars for years to come. 'I think we are accessing the market at precisely the right time, and a very opportune time,' said Stephen De May,treasurer of Duke Energy Indiana,whose subsidiary in early July borrowed $500 million at 3.75%,the fourth-lowest rate on record for a large U.S. corporate borrower,according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
McDonald's this week raised $450 million in 10-year debt at 3.5%,a record low yield for a large batch of debt issued by a U.S. corporate borrower. The U.S. government paid more than 3.5% for its 10-year debt as recently as May.
Interest rates on investment-grade corporate bonds recently averaged just 4%,according to Barclays Capital, the lowest in more than six years,and just 1.7 percentage points above relatively risk-free Treasury debt.
Lower borrowing costs are a boon to corporate profits,which could in turn benefit the broader economy and hiring. Duke Energy Indiana used its debt proceeds to fund power plant construction among other things.
But many companies are simply borrowing to refinance old debt. And many are leaving the cash haul on their balance sheets,bracing for the possibility of fresh crises or leaner growth ahead. That suggests the economic benefit of the borrowing boom could be limited.
'They're not looking to invest or to take on assets to try and build their business,' said Justin D'Ercole,head of Americas Investment Grade Syndicate at Barclays Capital, who helps companies sell new debt.
Corporate bond sales around the world so far have reached about $1.4 trillion this year, lagging behind the record $2.1 trillion for the same period in 2009, according to data provider Dealogic. But offerings were largely put on hold during May and part of June as the sovereign-debt crisis grew in Europe.
As more investors pour into the bond markets —— helping fuel the debt sale bonanza —— the risks increase they are just hopping on the latest bubble. Observers question whether the market can continue to generate such returns and wonder if investors are paying too dearly for corporate bonds that still have risks. 'I looked at McDonald's debt and felt marginally the same as if I'd eaten five Big Macs in a row,' said Jason Brady, portfolio manager at Thornburg Investment Management in Santa Fe. 'It's a great company,but I don't need to own a low-A-rated corporate risk at 3.5%.'
安卓版本:8.7.30 蘋果版本:8.7.30
開(kāi)發(fā)者:北京正保會(huì)計(jì)科技有限公司
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