In official comments that have fueled speculation about faster appreciation of the yuan, senior Chinese leaders seem to be acknowledging an argument long made by Washington and others that a stronger yuan may be helpful in taming the country's rising inflation.

　　中國(guó)高層領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人發(fā)表的一些官方言論似乎承認(rèn)華盛頓和其他方面長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)的一個(gè)觀點(diǎn)：人民幣升值或許有助于抑制中國(guó)不斷加劇的通貨膨脹，這類言論引發(fā)人們猜測(cè)人民幣將更快升值。

　　U.S. officials, and many economists, have argued that an artificially cheap Chinese currency, while boosting China's exports, is ultimately self-defeating because it adds to inflation, in part because export earnings flood the economy.

　　美國(guó)官員和很多經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家都曾說(shuō)，人為壓低人民幣匯率在提振中國(guó)出口的同時(shí)，最終也會(huì)損害本國(guó)利益，因?yàn)樗鼤?huì)由于出口利潤(rùn)泛濫于國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)等原因加劇通貨膨脹。

　　In recent days, as inflation readings have accelerated, Chinese officials have made comments that some analysts believe signal greater acceptance of that argument. Premier Wen Jiabao, at a meeting last week of the State Council, China's equivalent of a cabinet, listed 'strengthening the flexibility' of the yuan's exchange rate as one of several tools the government should better use to control prices. Less senior officials have made that argument before, but Mr. Wen's remarks were unusual for a top leader.

　　一些分析人士相信，中國(guó)官員近幾天在數(shù)據(jù)顯示通脹加劇的情況下發(fā)表的言論，暗示他們對(duì)上述觀點(diǎn)有了更深的認(rèn)同?？偫頊丶覍氃趪?guó)務(wù)院上周一次會(huì)議上，把提高人民幣匯率“靈活性”列為政府為控制物價(jià)應(yīng)當(dāng)更好利用的多種工具之一。此前也有級(jí)別比他低的官員說(shuō)過(guò)這樣的話，但溫家寶的言論對(duì)于一位高層領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人來(lái)說(shuō)是不尋常的。

　　Still, economists say Beijing's change in language, while significant, is unlikely to result in a sharp jump in the yuan. European Pressphoto Agency中國(guó)總理溫家寶，此圖攝于2010年。

　　上周，溫家寶把提高人民幣匯率“靈活性”列為了政府為控制物價(jià)應(yīng)當(dāng)更好利用的多種工具之一。不過(guò)濟(jì)學(xué)家說(shuō)，北京措辭的改變雖然意義重大，卻不太可能帶來(lái)人民幣匯率的大幅上升。

　　'China appears to be on the verge of allowing faster currency appreciation in response to inflation,' Mark Williams, senior China economist for Capital Economics in London, wrote in a note Tuesday, citing official comments. But Mr. Williams predicts the yuan will end this year around 6.20 per dollar, a gain of about 5.25% from current levels─meaning only a slight pickup in the pace of appreciation.

　　倫敦公司Capital Economics資深中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家威廉姆斯(Mark Williams)在周二一份報(bào)告中以官方言論為依據(jù)說(shuō)，中國(guó)似乎正在接近于為抗通脹而允許匯率更快升值。但威廉姆斯預(yù)計(jì)，今年年末人民幣將在1美元兌6.20元人民幣左右，較當(dāng)前升值幅度約為5.25%。這意味著人民幣升值速度只是略有加快。

　　The yuan ended trading Wednesday in Shanghai at a record high against the U.S. currency. But at 6.5255 per dollar, the yuan has gained only 4.6% since June, when Beijing ended a nearly two-year peg to the dollar. That is a pace of about 0.5% a month, much slower than some economists and foreign critics have urged.

　　周三上海市場(chǎng)，人民幣收于1美元兌6.5255元人民幣，創(chuàng)下紀(jì)錄高點(diǎn)，但自去年6月份北京解除人民幣與美元維持近兩年的掛鉤以來(lái)，升值幅度只有4.6%。算下來(lái)每個(gè)月升值幅度約為0.5%，遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)低于一些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家和外國(guó)批評(píng)人士呼吁的速度。

　　Economists generally agree that faster appreciation could help cool prices, at least somewhat. A stronger yuan would reduce the costs in local currency of crude oil, iron ore, soybeans and other commodities that China imports in enormous quantities─soaring prices for which have been passed on to consumers in higher costs of food and transport.

　　經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家普遍認(rèn)為，加快升值有助于冷卻物價(jià)，至少可以在一定程度上冷卻。人民幣升值會(huì)降低中國(guó)大量進(jìn)口的原油、鐵礦石、大豆和其他大宗商品以本幣計(jì)算的價(jià)格。進(jìn)口大宗商品價(jià)格的飆升，已經(jīng)以食品和交通成本上漲的形式傳導(dǎo)給消費(fèi)者。

　　Mr. Wen has said fighting inflation is China's top economic priority this year, and the government has raised interest rates four times since October, ordered companies to halt price increases, and cranked back the supply of bank credit. But consumer prices still rose in March at their fastest pace in 32 months.

　　溫家寶曾說(shuō)，抗通脹是今年中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)工作的頭等大事。自去年10月份以來(lái)，政府已經(jīng)四次上調(diào)利率。除此以外，它還下令企業(yè)暫停漲價(jià)，并重新收緊銀行的信貸供給。但今年3月份消費(fèi)價(jià)格仍然出現(xiàn)32個(gè)月以來(lái)的最大漲幅。

　　On Monday, People's Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said the government is working to reduce the accumulation of foreign-exchange reserves. They have soared to more than $3 trillion largely as a consequence of China's currency policy, which forces the central bank to buy dollars from exporters and foreign investors. Mr. Zhou said the reserves pump excess cash into the economy and 'exceed our reasonable requirements.

　　中國(guó)人民銀行行長(zhǎng)周小川周一說(shuō)，政府正在著手減少外匯儲(chǔ)備的積累。主要由于中國(guó)的貨幣政策迫使央行從出口企業(yè)和外國(guó)投資者手中購(gòu)買美元，外匯儲(chǔ)備已經(jīng)猛增至三萬(wàn)億美元以上。周小川說(shuō)，這些儲(chǔ)備向經(jīng)濟(jì)體注入了過(guò)多現(xiàn)金，已經(jīng)超過(guò)了中國(guó)需要的合理水平。

　　China's currency policy has long been a source of friction with trading partners, especially the U.S., which argue that an undervalued yuan unfairly benefits Chinese exporters. On Monday, a delegation of 10 U.S. senators arrived in Beijing─including New York Democrat Charles Schumer, perhaps China's biggest critic on the currency issue─for meetings with Chinese officials at which the Americans plan to raise the exchange-rate issue.

　　中國(guó)匯率政策長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)都是與貿(mào)易伙伴、特別是美國(guó)發(fā)生磨擦的原因，這些貿(mào)易伙伴認(rèn)為，人民幣匯率低估給中國(guó)出口企業(yè)帶來(lái)了不公平的好處。一個(gè)由10名美國(guó)參議員組成的代表團(tuán)周一抵達(dá)北京與中國(guó)官員會(huì)談。美方打算在會(huì)談期間提起匯率問(wèn)題。代表團(tuán)成員包括紐約州民主黨參議員舒默(Charles Schumer)，他可能是匯率問(wèn)題上抨擊中國(guó)最猛烈的一位。

　　But the Obama administration also has stressed to Beijing the importance of a stronger yuan in fighting inflation, recognizing that China's leaders place far more importance on domestic considerations than on foreign pressure.

　　奧巴馬政府還曾向中方強(qiáng)調(diào)人民幣升值對(duì)于抗通脹的重要性，它認(rèn)識(shí)到，中國(guó)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)情況的重視遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過(guò)對(duì)國(guó)外壓力的重視。

　　Top political leaders in China like Mr. Wen─the ones who ultimately decide key issues like exchange-rate policy─in the past didn't typically view the currency as a monetary-policy tool, analysts say. But that may be changing.

　　像溫家寶這樣的中國(guó)高層領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人，是匯率政策等核心問(wèn)題的最終決策者。分析人士說(shuō)，過(guò)去他們一般都沒(méi)有把匯率當(dāng)作一項(xiàng)貨幣政策工具來(lái)看。但事情可能正在起變化。

　　'There may be a shift under way from thinking about the exchange rate mainly as a variable that affects the competitiveness of exporters to a macroeconomic variable that is part of the management of growth and inflation,' said Louis Kuijs, economist at the World Bank in Beijing.

　　世界銀行(World Bank)駐北京經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家高路易(Louis Kuijs)說(shuō)，目前可能正在發(fā)生一種轉(zhuǎn)變，不再把匯率主要視為一個(gè)可以影響出口商競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的因素，而是把它視為一個(gè)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)因素，是管理經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)和通貨膨脹的一部分。

　　Still, estimating the impact of a stronger yuan on inflation with any precision is difficult.

　　盡管如此，很難確切估計(jì)人民幣走強(qiáng)對(duì)通脹的影響。

　　And there are limits to the relationship between the two. Higher costs for imported fertilizer and diesel affect the agricultural sector, but most of China's food—which accounts for nearly a third of the basket used to calculate the consumer-price index—is grown domestically, not imported.

　　此外，二者之間的關(guān)系也是有限的。進(jìn)口化肥和柴油價(jià)格的上漲會(huì)影響農(nóng)業(yè)，但中國(guó)大部分糧食都是國(guó)內(nèi)種植的，而不是進(jìn)口的。食品占了中國(guó)消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)(CPI)計(jì)算權(quán)重的近三分之一。

　　Even for goods that are imported, the government's other tools, like price controls, help mitigate the impact of imported inflation on consumers: State-set prices for gasoline and diesel in China have risen about 10% this year, even as global prices for crude oil have soared more than 20%.

　　即使是對(duì)進(jìn)口商品，政府的其他工具（比如價(jià)格控制）也可以幫助減輕輸入型通脹對(duì)消費(fèi)者的影響：中國(guó)由政府設(shè)定的汽油和柴油價(jià)格今年上漲了約10%，而同期全球原油價(jià)格飆升了20%以上。

　　A stronger yuan would do little to affect one key structural component of China's inflation: rising wages. Economists believe that China has hit a point in its development at which demand for labor starts to grow faster than supply, pushing up salaries. A survey conducted by Standard Chartered in the first quarter of 2011 showed average wages in a sample of 87 manufacturing firms rising by 9% to 15% from the previous year.

　　人民幣走強(qiáng)對(duì)中國(guó)通貨膨脹的一個(gè)主要結(jié)構(gòu)性成分──不斷提高的工資影響甚微。經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為，中國(guó)的發(fā)展已經(jīng)到了一定的階段，勞動(dòng)力需求的增速開始超過(guò)供應(yīng)的增速，進(jìn)而推高了工資。渣打銀行(Standard Chartered) 2011年一季度進(jìn)行的一項(xiàng)調(diào)查顯示，在調(diào)查的87個(gè)制造企業(yè)中，平均工資較上年同期漲了9%至15%。

　　Balanced against the benefits of a stronger yuan are concerns about the potential impact on exporters, who employ a huge share of China's work force. Many of them operate on thin profit margins. Concern about exporters is one reason top officials have long insisted that any change in the yuan must be measured. 'We will further increase the [yuan's] flexibility according to the market,' Mr. Wen said last month. 'But we must also keep in mind that this kind of reform is gradual, because it affects companies and employment.

　　另一方面，人民幣走強(qiáng)會(huì)引發(fā)對(duì)出口商潛在影響的擔(dān)憂。出口商雇傭的工人占了中國(guó)勞動(dòng)力總數(shù)的一大塊。很多出口商的利潤(rùn)率非常低。對(duì)出口商的擔(dān)憂是政府高層一直堅(jiān)持人民幣升值必須慎重進(jìn)行的原因之一。溫家寶上個(gè)月說(shuō)，將根據(jù)市場(chǎng)需求變化，進(jìn)一步加大人民幣匯率浮動(dòng)彈性；但同時(shí)要堅(jiān)持漸進(jìn)升值，因?yàn)橐紤]到企業(yè)承受能力和就業(yè)問(wèn)題。

　　A hazard of the steady, gradual approach to appreciation is that it invites speculators to pump capital into China to profit on what they see as a one-way bet. Authorities revile such 'hot money,' in part because it can further fuel inflation.

　　穩(wěn)步漸進(jìn)升值的一個(gè)危險(xiǎn)是，這會(huì)吸引投機(jī)者向中國(guó)注入大量資本，以便從他們認(rèn)為只賺不賠的押注中獲利。有關(guān)部門抨擊這類熱錢，原因之一是熱錢會(huì)進(jìn)一步推高通脹。

　　As a result, some economists have argued that Beijing should opt for a sizable one-time revaluation of the yuan. But even academic advocates of this approach conceded that it is politically untenable.

　　有鑒于此，一些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家說(shuō)，北京應(yīng)該選擇一次性大幅升值人民幣。不過(guò)，即使是提倡這一做法的學(xué)術(shù)界人士也承認(rèn)，這在政治上是站不住腳的。

　　Last spring, Zhang Bin, a senior researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Science, proposed a one-time appreciation, followed by a return to a pegged exchange rate. Now, however, he admits: 'The economics make sense, but politically it would be impossible to get agreement.

　　去年春季，中國(guó)社會(huì)科學(xué)院高級(jí)研究員張斌提出了一次性升值、然后回到與一籃子貨幣掛鉤的匯率建議。不過(guò)，他現(xiàn)在承認(rèn)，這在經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)上是說(shuō)得通的，但政治上無(wú)法獲得同意。

　　Xia Bin, one of three academic advisers on the central bank's largely powerless monetary-policy committee, argued in an Internet post Tuesday that a one-time jump in the yuan 'shouldn't be excluded.' But he also said this was a 'long-term' prescription. 'In the current situation, excessive fast appreciation isn't good for the Chinese economy or social stability,' he wrote.

　　夏斌周二在網(wǎng)上發(fā)貼說(shuō)，不排除一次性升值的情況。不過(guò)他也說(shuō)，從長(zhǎng)期來(lái)看，逐步的升值是必須的。他寫到，在目前的情況下，升值過(guò)快，不利于中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會(huì)穩(wěn)定。夏斌是央行下屬的基本無(wú)權(quán)的貨幣政策委員會(huì)中三位專家顧問(wèn)之一。

　　Some economists argue that the general approach to measuring the yuan's exchange rate is misguided, because it overemphasizes the dollar. While the yuan has gained 4.6% against the U.S. currency since June, its 'real effective exchange rate'—taking account of price changes and the yuan's value against other currencies like the euro—is little changed.

　　一些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家說(shuō)，衡量人民幣匯率的一般方法誤入歧途了，因?yàn)樗^(guò)于強(qiáng)調(diào)美元。盡管去年6月以來(lái)人民幣兌美元已經(jīng)累計(jì)升值4.6%，實(shí)際有效匯率卻變化很小。實(shí)際有效匯率考慮到了物價(jià)變化和人民幣兌歐元等其他貨幣的匯率。

　　Data from the Bank for International Settlements shows that in the period from June 2010 through March 2011, the real effective exchange rate has actually depreciated slightly. Economists say that means there is scope for appreciation without hurting the competitiveness of exporters. But even the more bullish estimates appearing in the last few days expect appreciation of only 6% to 8% against the dollar over the course of the year.

　　國(guó)際清算銀行(Bank for International Settlements)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，從2010年6月至2011年3月，人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率實(shí)際上小幅下降。經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家說(shuō)，這意味著存在在不損害出口商競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的情況下升值的空間。不過(guò)，即使是過(guò)去幾天出現(xiàn)的更加樂(lè)觀的估計(jì)也認(rèn)為，今年人民幣兌美元將僅僅升值6%至8%。