Domestic imperatives rather than the tinkering of political leaders will likely close the trade gap between the United States and China, a top economist said Friday. 美國一位知名經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家上周五說，有望縮小美國與中國之間貿(mào)易差額的，與其說是政治領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人的小打小鬧，不如說是美國國內(nèi)已經(jīng)存在的各種動(dòng)力。

　　Harvard University economic professor Martin Feldstein made the case that a series of forces already in play will help do what political leaders have failed to accomplish, which is put in place a path to help rebalance a relationship that sees a massive outflow of dollars from the U.S. into Chinese hands. This imbalance is a major driver of America’s overall trade deficit, and become a major political problem complicating the two nations’ relationship. 哈佛大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)教授費(fèi)爾德斯坦(Martin Feldstein)認(rèn)為，一系列已經(jīng)在發(fā)揮作用的力量將有助于完成政治領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人沒有完成的任務(wù)，那就是幫助恢復(fù)美中經(jīng)濟(jì)關(guān)系的平衡，不再讓美元從美國大量流入中國人手中。這種失衡是美國整體貿(mào)易赤字的一個(gè)重要成因，并已成為一個(gè)讓兩國關(guān)系復(fù)雜化的政治問題。

　　Feldstein’s outlook will strike many as overly optimistic, given that the U.S. and others have been working with little apparent success to induce the Chinese to allow the yuan, which is currently pegged to the dollar, to rise relative to the greenback. While Chinese authorities have allowed a very modest appreciation of late, many have said what has happened is insufficient to redress a situation almost all view as unsustainable. 很多人會(huì)覺得費(fèi)爾德斯坦的這番展望過于樂觀，畢竟美國和其他國家都在努力誘導(dǎo)中方允許人民幣相對美元升值，取得的成功似乎卻是微乎其微。目前人民幣同美元掛鉤，雖然中國有關(guān)部門最近允許人民幣以非常溫和的幅度升值，但很多人說過，已有的升值不足以糾正一個(gè)幾乎所有人都認(rèn)為不可持續(xù)的局勢。

　　The relationship between the dollar and the yuan even became a sticking point in the Federal Reserve’s effort to stimulate the economy by buying longer-term U.S. government debt. For a time that action depressed the dollar and made Chinese goods even cheaper in global markets. That frustrated European authorities dealing with their own economic problems, and angered Chinese leaders, who were already trying to deal with signs of inflation and economic overheating in their own economy. 美元與人民幣的關(guān)系，甚至成了美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Federal Reserve)通過購買較長期美國國債刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)的一個(gè)爭議之處。一段時(shí)間內(nèi)，此舉將壓低美元匯率，使中國商品在美國以外的其他市場更加便宜。這使正在處理自身經(jīng)濟(jì)問題的歐洲當(dāng)局，以及已經(jīng)面臨通脹和經(jīng)濟(jì)過熱跡象的中國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人大為不滿。

　　Feldstein, who was speaking at an economics conference in Denver, is not counting on the political class to solve the problem. Instead, he believes the U.S dollar needs to be allowed to fall, U.S. households need to save more, and government budget deficits need to shrink. 費(fèi)爾德斯坦是在丹佛市一個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇上發(fā)表這些觀點(diǎn)的，他不指望政治家能夠解決問題。相反，他認(rèn)為美元需要被允許下跌，美國家庭需要提高儲(chǔ)蓄，政府預(yù)算赤字需要降低。

　　The academic reckons all of these things are possible, even probable. “Substantial progress will be made over the next several years” on the required fronts. He’s hopeful on budget deficits due to an improving economy and what he hopes will be an increased realization among elected leaders borrowing must be lowered to a more sustainable path. 這位學(xué)者認(rèn)為這一切都是有可能的，甚至是大有可能。未來幾年，這些問題的解決將會(huì)取得“長足進(jìn)步”。他對預(yù)算赤字問題表示樂觀，是因?yàn)榻?jīng)濟(jì)在改善，并且他預(yù)計(jì)民選領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人將越來越多地認(rèn)識到借款規(guī)模必須降低到更可持續(xù)的水平。

　　On the China side of the equation, Feldstein expects contributions as well. First, he notes that the real value of yuan appreciation is quite a bit higher than what officials are implementing relative to their dollar peg, which is helpful. How so? Feldstein points to the impact of higher Chinese price inflation relative to the very low price gains seen in the U.S., which he says drives up the “real” value of the yuan relative to the dollar. 費(fèi)爾德斯坦預(yù)計(jì)，中國這邊也會(huì)做出貢獻(xiàn)。首先他指出，人民幣實(shí)際匯率的升值比官方相對于美元實(shí)施的升值快很多，而這是有助于化解失衡的。為什么這么說呢？費(fèi)爾德斯坦提到了中國物價(jià)上漲比美國更快的影響。他說，這種情況提高了人民幣相對于美元的“實(shí)際”匯率。

　　The economist also sees Chinese policies creating the conditions for better levels of domestic spending, noting “it is important these policies are rooted in domestic considerations.” 這位經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家還認(rèn)為，中國的政策為國內(nèi)支出水平的提高創(chuàng)造了條件，而重要的是，這些政策是基于國內(nèi)的考慮而出臺的。

　　Feldstein’s ideas are controversial. For one, his optimism that the U.S. can get its fiscal house in order confronts a very fractious political environment. For all the talk of lowering deficits, the incoming Republican congress has already backed away from its commitment to trim $100 billion from government spending, while pushing through a largely symbolical health care reform repeal the Congressional Budget Office says would actually worsen the long term outlook for the budget, if it succeeded. Right now, it remains very unclear where a reduced budget deficit will come from.

　　費(fèi)爾德斯坦的觀點(diǎn)存在爭議。首先，他樂觀地認(rèn)為美國可以讓財(cái)政狀況回歸有序，這與一個(gè)動(dòng)輒不滿的政治環(huán)境不符。盡管大家都在說降低赤字，即將履行職權(quán)的共和黨國會(huì)已經(jīng)放棄將政府支出削減1,000億美元的承諾，同時(shí)推動(dòng)一項(xiàng)基本上只是象征性的撤銷醫(yī)療改革行動(dòng)，國會(huì)預(yù)算辦公室(Congressional Budget Office)認(rèn)為該行動(dòng)如果成功，事實(shí)上將惡化長期預(yù)算前景。降低預(yù)算赤字從何從開刀，目前仍舊是非常不明朗。