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美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)該放手時(shí)且放手(雙語)

來源: 互聯(lián)網(wǎng) 編輯: 2011/08/11 15:52:29  字體:

  Big Ben went small. And that is probably a good thing.

  曾經(jīng)推出各種大手筆政策的貝南克(Ben Bernanke),如今只有一些小動(dòng)作。這可能是件好事。

  Rather than come in guns blazing in the wake of Monday's market rout, the Federal Reserve chose at its Tuesday meeting to hold off on extreme measures, notably the resumption of purchases of government bonds that some investors had hoped for. Instead, Chairman Ben Bernanke and the Fed opted only to change language for how long it expects to keep interest rates near zero until 'at least mid-2013'; previously, the Fed only said rates would be kept low for "an extended period."

  周一市場重挫之后,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Federal Reserve)沒有拿出暴風(fēng)驟雨般的行動(dòng),而是在周二會(huì)議上暫緩?fù)瞥鰳O端措施,特別是一些投資者曾經(jīng)期待的恢復(fù)購買國債之舉。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)及其主席貝南克決定只是將預(yù)計(jì)保持近零利率多長時(shí)間的措辭,從原先的“較長時(shí)期”變更為“至少到2013年中期”。

  As unprecedented as this was, it still fell short of what some in markets expected. Not that it immediately mattered -- stocks soared. That was likely due to the prospect of rates staying low for so long, but also possibly because the Fed didn't rule out more bond buys down the road.

  這種改變固然前所未有,但它仍然沒有達(dá)到部分市場人士的預(yù)期。這并不是說它沒有立即發(fā)揮作用──股市立即飆升。股市上漲可能是因?yàn)槔视型绱碎L久地保持在低水平,但也可能是因?yàn)槊缆?lián)儲(chǔ)沒有排除將來再次收購債券的可能。

  The Fed did raise more concerns about the economy and what is causing growth to falter, noting temporary factors such as Japan's natural disasters, "appear to account for only some of the recent weakness in economic activity."

  美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)確實(shí)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況以及增長減緩的原因表達(dá)了更多的擔(dān)憂。它指出,日本自然災(zāi)害等暫時(shí)性因素似乎只是近期經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)走軟的部分原因。

  Even so, economic conditions are hardly dire enough for the Fed to again prop up markets. With fewer arrows left in its quiver, it will have to bide its time. This is especially the case given three Fed members dissented from the statement because they thought the 'extended period' language shouldn't have been changed. This shows the Fed is divided at the moment over the growth outlook and what should be done about it.

   即便如此,也很難說經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境的惡劣達(dá)到了要讓美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)再度救市的地步。由于囊中之箭越來越少,它只能靜候時(shí)機(jī)??紤]到美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)三位成員認(rèn)為“較長時(shí)期”的措辭不應(yīng)改變、所以不同意聲明內(nèi)容,那就更應(yīng)如此。三位成員的不同意見說明,目前美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)內(nèi)部對(duì)于增長前景和應(yīng)該采取什么對(duì)策存在分歧。

  Moving too fast also holds other risks. A quick reversal on asset purchases would have looked schizophrenic given that just two months ago it opted to let its previous, $600 billion bond-buying program expire as planned. It also isn't clear how much impact additional bond buying would have on the economy and job growth. Even if the last bond-buying program helped -- an issue still the subject of much debate -- the Fed risks getting less and less bang for its buck.

  行動(dòng)過快還存在其他風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。如果迅速回調(diào)資產(chǎn)購買計(jì)劃,那就像是精神分裂一樣,因?yàn)樵趦蓚€(gè)月之前,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)還決定讓前一個(gè)規(guī)模為6,000億美元的債券購買行動(dòng)按原計(jì)劃到期。再次購買債券能夠?qū)?jīng)濟(jì)增長和就業(yè)增長產(chǎn)生多大的影響也不清楚。即使上一個(gè)債券購買計(jì)劃起到了作用(這個(gè)話題仍然需要討論),美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的政策效力也有可能越來越弱。

  Plus, banks aren't in the kind of dire straits that necessitate central-bank action. The financial system is awash in liquidity and credit markets are functioning.

  另外,銀行的境況還不至于差到需要央行采取行動(dòng)。金融系統(tǒng)流動(dòng)性充裕,信貸市場運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)正常。

  Perhaps the biggest reason for the Fed to hold back: By not riding to the markets' rescue, it may put more pressure on politicians in Washington. Just as markets have become overly reliant on the Fed, Washington also has become too confident that even if it dithers, Bernanke & Co. will do the heavy lifting.

  美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)按兵不動(dòng)的最大原因或許是這樣的:自己不救市,可能就會(huì)給華盛頓政治家施加更多壓力。正如市場已經(jīng)對(duì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)產(chǎn)生過度依賴,華盛頓也是過于相信,即使自己猶豫不決,貝南克那幫人也會(huì)挑起大梁。

  If the Fed put the ball back in the government's court, politicians may feel added impetus to deal with thorny economic issues. After all, as Mr. Bernanke has repeatedly said, the Fed can only do so much.

  如果美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)把球踢給政府,政治家們可能就會(huì)更加感受到應(yīng)對(duì)棘手經(jīng)濟(jì)問題的緊迫性。畢竟正如貝南克常言,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)能做的也就這么多了。

  True, the Fed isn't likely to stand by if deflation again becomes a threat. But for now, the Fed is right to let markets find their own footing and demand the government does its part to shore up the economy.

  是的,如果通貨緊縮威脅再度顯現(xiàn),美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)不太可能袖手旁觀。但從目前來看,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)任由市場自己站穩(wěn)腳跟、要求政府履行振興經(jīng)濟(jì)的職責(zé),實(shí)為恰當(dāng)之舉。

我要糾錯(cuò)】 責(zé)任編輯:雨非
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