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The Bric quartet – Brazil, China, India and Russia – own the equivalent of about ¢3,000bn in foreign exchange reserves. Combine this immense sum with the resources of European governments and the European Central Bank, and there emerges the seductive vision of a swift and painless end to the eurozone’s sovereign debt and banking crisis. This vision is a mirage.
金磚四國(guó)(巴西、中國(guó)、印度和俄羅斯)加起來(lái)?yè)碛写蠹s3萬(wàn)億歐元的外匯儲(chǔ)備。若將這個(gè)巨大的金額與歐洲各國(guó)政府和歐洲央行(ECB)的資源結(jié)合起來(lái),就會(huì)產(chǎn)生一個(gè)誘人的愿景:歐元區(qū)主權(quán)債務(wù)和銀行業(yè)危機(jī)迅速而無(wú)痛苦地告終??上н@種愿景是一個(gè)幻覺(jué)。
The Bric countries undoubtedly fear that Europe’s troubles may soon spread across the oceans and destabilise their economies and financial systems. Such apprehensions may spur the quartet, especially China, to extend some support to the eurozone – at a price, of course. Nevertheless the fundamental responsibility for overcoming the crisis must and will rest with the Europeans themselves.
金磚四國(guó)無(wú)疑擔(dān)心,歐洲的麻煩可能很快跨越汪洋大海,蔓延到自己的國(guó)家,破壞它們的經(jīng)濟(jì)和金融體系的穩(wěn)定。這種擔(dān)憂可能促使這四個(gè)國(guó)家(尤其是中國(guó))向歐元區(qū)提供一些支持——當(dāng)然是有條件的。可是,克服危機(jī)的根本責(zé)任,必須而且必然會(huì)落在歐洲人自己的肩膀上。
The Bric label disguises the fact that the four countries, with which South Africa is sometimes associated, do not really speak with one voice on the world economic stage, let alone co-ordinate their actions in advance. Indian officials were surprised when Brazil proposed on Tuesday that Bric finance ministers and central bank governors should use a meeting in Washington next week to discuss joint action in support of the eurozone. Yet the potential political benefits of such an initiative are obvious. It is a pertinent reminder that the Bric nations are aware not only of the importance of financial market stability, but of the redistribution of global economic power from the west to the east and south.
“金磚四國(guó)”這個(gè)標(biāo)簽掩蓋了一個(gè)事實(shí),即這四個(gè)國(guó)家(有時(shí)還要加上南非)在世界經(jīng)濟(jì)舞臺(tái)上并不以一個(gè)聲音說(shuō)話,更遑論預(yù)先協(xié)調(diào)它們的行動(dòng)了。當(dāng)巴西在周二提議,金磚國(guó)家財(cái)長(zhǎng)和央行行長(zhǎng)應(yīng)當(dāng)借下周在華盛頓召開的會(huì)議之機(jī)討論支持歐元區(qū)的聯(lián)合行動(dòng)時(shí),印度官員感到意外。然而巴西提議的潛在政治效益是明顯的。這恰到好處地提醒了世人:金磚國(guó)家不僅意識(shí)到金融市場(chǎng)穩(wěn)定的重要性,還意識(shí)到全球經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力正從西方向東方和南半球轉(zhuǎn)移。
China, as the holder of the world’s largest foreign reserves, has a clear interest in preserving the eurozone’s stability. From its launch in 1999, the euro has been viewed in Beijing as a potential long-term counterweight to the dollar. China is heavily invested in US government debt, alarmed at what it sees as fiscal debauchery in Washington, and frustrated at the party political rancour that has impeded efforts to return the public finances to order. All this makes it conceivable that China will buy limited amounts of European sovereign debt in a bid to lift market sentiment in favour of the euro and earn international political credit for itself.
對(duì)于擁有全球最大外匯儲(chǔ)備的中國(guó)來(lái)說(shuō),保持歐元區(qū)的穩(wěn)定顯然符合其利益。自歐元在1999年問(wèn)世起,北京方面一直將其視為長(zhǎng)期而言有望與美元抗衡的貨幣。持有大量美國(guó)國(guó)債的中國(guó),對(duì)其眼中美國(guó)政府的財(cái)政放蕩感到震驚;對(duì)于妨礙了恢復(fù)公共財(cái)政的努力的美國(guó)黨派政治之爭(zhēng),感到失望。這一切都意味著,中國(guó)可能購(gòu)買數(shù)量有限的歐洲主權(quán)債務(wù),力求提振有利于歐元的市場(chǎng)情緒,并為自己贏得國(guó)際政治贊譽(yù)。
But China does not hand out free lunches, and Europe has no right to expect any. Beijing is already linking support for the eurozone to official European recognition of China as a market economy. China is also making the point that the Europeans need urgently to get their act together by mastering the debt crisis and reforming their economies. It is a message that is hard to disagree with.
但中國(guó)并不提供免費(fèi)午餐,歐洲也沒(méi)有權(quán)利期待任何施舍。北京方面已經(jīng)將支持歐元區(qū)與歐洲正式承認(rèn)中國(guó)的市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)地位掛鉤。中國(guó)還明確指出,歐洲人亟需振作起來(lái),遏制債務(wù)危機(jī),改革各國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)。這話說(shuō)的讓人很難不予以認(rèn)同。
安卓版本:8.7.30 蘋果版本:8.7.30
開發(fā)者:北京正保會(huì)計(jì)科技有限公司
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