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With the same force that powered the most ambitious rail programme in history, China has slammed the brakes on its investment in high-speed trains.
中國(guó)曾經(jīng)狠踩油門、啟動(dòng)了有史以來最雄心勃勃的鐵路發(fā)展計(jì)劃。如今,它以同樣大的力度狠踩下了高鐵投資的剎車。
The sudden halt has led to system-wide whiplash, leaving workers without pay, battalions of heavy machinery sitting idle and setting back plans for bullet trains that were meant to carry the nation’s future.
突然暫停投資之舉令整個(gè)鐵路系統(tǒng)遭受重創(chuàng),工人們領(lǐng)不到工資,大批重型機(jī)械閑置一旁,高鐵計(jì)劃被推遲,而這些計(jì)劃原本希望承載中國(guó)的未來。
In the farm fields of Bazhou, unfinished pillars and silent cement mixers stand along a gravel path that was designed to be a key link in the high-speed network connecting Tianjin with Baoding. It is now one of the dozens of large rail projects suspended after a crash in July left 40 people dead near the eastern city of Wenzhou. The crash revealed how China had cut corners in its haste to build the world’s biggest bullet train system.
在河北霸州的農(nóng)田里,沿著一條鋪滿碎石的線路,矗立著未完工的橋墩,水泥攪拌機(jī)無聲無息的停在一旁。這條線路原本是津保高鐵上的重要一環(huán)。在7月份溫州郊區(qū)發(fā)生動(dòng)車追尾事故、造成40人死亡后,這條線路便成為幾十個(gè)目前暫時(shí)停工的大型鐵路項(xiàng)目之一。溫州動(dòng)車事故暴露出中國(guó)在匆忙打造全球最大高鐵系統(tǒng)過程中的急于求成。
“Everything is a lot harder. There is no money, so we can’t even pay our workers. And quality checks are extremely strict,” said a crew boss from the China Railway Engineering Corporation, the state-owned enterprise that has laid most of the nation’s rail tracks.
國(guó)有的中國(guó)鐵路工程總公司(CREC)的一名施工負(fù)責(zé)人稱:“現(xiàn)在一切都變得困難得多。因?yàn)闆]有錢,我們甚至無法支付工人的工資。而且質(zhì)檢也變得極為嚴(yán)格。”中國(guó)的大部分鐵路都是該公司建設(shè)的。
With the broader economy slowing, the government has signalled it might relaunch some of the stalled investment plans as a way of stimulating growth. For now, from a peak of about 600 workers, 20 remain at the Bazhou site, lugging sacks of gravel to pave a service road that will run alongside the track – whenever it is completed. It was the only part of the project that had received approval, according to the crew boss.
隨著整體經(jīng)濟(jì)逐漸放緩,中國(guó)政府已表示,可能重啟一些遭擱置的投資計(jì)劃,以提振增長(zhǎng)。就目前而言,霸州工地上的工人數(shù)量已從峰值時(shí)期的約600人減至20人。工人們拖來一袋袋碎石,以便鋪設(shè)將與這條線路——還不知它何時(shí)能完工——并行的側(cè)道。上述施工負(fù)責(zé)人稱,這條側(cè)道是整個(gè)項(xiàng)目中唯一獲準(zhǔn)施工的部分。
Wang Mengshu, deputy chief engineer at the China Railway Tunnel Group, told state media last week a shortage of funds had halted the construction of more than 10,000km of track nationwide.
中國(guó)中鐵隧道集團(tuán)(China Railway Tunnel Group)副總工程師王夢(mèng)恕上周曾告訴國(guó)有媒體,資金短缺已導(dǎo)致全國(guó)逾1萬(wàn)公里鐵路的建設(shè)停工。
Without a resumption, the rail industry’s 6m workers would suffer, Mr Wang added.
他補(bǔ)充稱,如果不復(fù)工,鐵路行業(yè)的600萬(wàn)工人將受到影響。
After receiving a torrent of government cash for years, the sudden shortage is new and uncomfortable for China’s tight-knit railway industry.
中國(guó)的鐵路行業(yè)自成體系,多年來一直接受政府源源不斷的投資,如今突然遭遇資金短缺,令其既感到陌生又不安。
Before the Wenzhou accident, high-speed rail had been a source of immense national pride. The country’s first bullet train only started running in 2007 but within four years China had developed the world’s largest high-speed network. The plan was to double the length of the high-speed rail lines by 2020, but confidence has faltered.
在溫州動(dòng)車事故之前,高鐵曾為中國(guó)人帶來巨大的民族自豪感。中國(guó)的首列動(dòng)車是在2007年才開始運(yùn)行的,但短短4年內(nèi),中國(guó)就建設(shè)起了全球規(guī)模最大的高鐵網(wǎng)絡(luò)。中國(guó)曾計(jì)劃到2020年時(shí)讓高鐵總里程翻一番,但如今它的信心卻不那么足了。
“We need seriously to check our designs from the foundations up and pinpoint the flaws. After all, high-speed rail is a new thing,” said Huang Zhiyi, deputy director of the Institute of Transportation Engineering at Zhejiang University, a leading centre for research and development in the Chinese rail industry.
浙江大學(xué)(Zhejiang University)交通工程研究所(Institute of Transportation Engineering)副所長(zhǎng)黃志義表示:“我們需要從基礎(chǔ)開始認(rèn)真檢查我們的設(shè)計(jì),找出存在的問題。高鐵畢竟是個(gè)新生事物。”該研究所是中國(guó)鐵路行業(yè)的頂尖研發(fā)中心之一。
Spending had been slowing after a surge from stimulus money in 2009, but the decline since the Wenzhou crash in July has been precipitous. In year to date terms, investment in railways and transport had been up 7 per cent in the first half of 2011. By the end of September it was down 19 per cent, according to official data.
2009年出臺(tái)的刺激計(jì)劃導(dǎo)致鐵路建設(shè)資金急劇增加。在那之后,中國(guó)鐵路建設(shè)支出一直在放緩,但直線下降出現(xiàn)在7月份的溫州動(dòng)車事故之后。今年上半年,鐵路和交通投資增長(zhǎng)7%。而根據(jù)官方數(shù)據(jù),今年截至9月底,鐵路和交通投資萎縮了19%。
There is little chance of a return to the construction frenzy of the past five years but the government appears to be slowly setting the high-speed rail plans back in motion. To do so would provide an immediate boost to the weakening economy. Longer term, it is also expected to encourage a big structural shift, opening up China’s interior to make domestic growth more self-sustaining.
中國(guó)眼下幾乎不可能重新上演過去5年里的建設(shè)狂潮。但中國(guó)政府似乎正在緩慢重啟高鐵計(jì)劃。這樣做能夠給中國(guó)正在放緩的經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來的立竿見影的提振效果。中長(zhǎng)期而言,它應(yīng)該還會(huì)促成重大的結(jié)構(gòu)性轉(zhuǎn)變,增加中國(guó)內(nèi)陸地區(qū)的開放程度,增強(qiáng)國(guó)內(nèi)增長(zhǎng)的自我持續(xù)性。
Beijing’s first task has been to appease investors. Concerns about the railway ministry’s fast-growing debt – Rmb2,100bn ($330bn) and counting – and tight monetary conditions had combined with the crash to damage market sentiment, forcing the ministry to put off plans to raise capital.
中國(guó)政府首先要做的是安撫投資者。鐵道部的債務(wù)已達(dá)2.1萬(wàn)億元人民幣(合3300億美元),而且還在迅速增長(zhǎng)。投資者對(duì)這一債務(wù)和偏緊貨幣環(huán)境的擔(dān)憂,再加上溫州動(dòng)車事故對(duì)市場(chǎng)信心造成的不利影響,迫使鐵道部不得不推遲融資計(jì)劃。
To break the logjam, the finance ministry said this month it would cut taxes by half on interest earned from railway bonds issued between now and 2013. That smoothed the way for the sale of Rmb20bn in debt, with more on the way. The State Council has also ordered banks to extend more loans to the railway ministry.
為了擺脫這一困境,中國(guó)財(cái)政部本月表示,將對(duì)現(xiàn)在至2013年發(fā)行的鐵路建設(shè)債券的利息收入減半征稅。這為鐵道部發(fā)行200億元人民幣債券、以及未來發(fā)行更多債券鋪平了道路。中國(guó)國(guó)務(wù)院還指示銀行向鐵道部發(fā)放更多貸款。
But Beijing must also address concerns among the public. Passenger numbers have fallen sharply since the Wenzhou crash. About 151m trips were made on Chinese trains in September, almost 30m fewer than in July, according to ministry data.
但除此之外,中國(guó)政府還必須化解公眾的擔(dān)憂。自溫州動(dòng)車事故以來,鐵路旅客數(shù)量大幅下滑。根據(jù)鐵道部的數(shù)據(jù),9月份中國(guó)鐵路客運(yùn)發(fā)送量約為1.51億人次,比7月份減少了將近3000萬(wàn)人次。
Beyond ordering a thorough safety review, however, Beijing has shown little appetite for fundamental change. The concrete plants next to the Bazhou track have not been dismantled. Their doors have only been padlocked and are waiting to be reopened.
不過,除了下令進(jìn)行徹底的安全檢查外,中國(guó)政府對(duì)徹底改革鐵路行業(yè)幾乎沒有流露出任何興趣。霸州段鐵路旁的水泥廠并沒有被拆除,它們只是大門上了鎖,正等待復(fù)工。
安卓版本:8.7.30 蘋果版本:8.7.30
開發(fā)者:北京正保會(huì)計(jì)科技有限公司
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