问题已解决
老師修正移動平均法是用實(shí)際的前三年數(shù)據(jù)平均加(平均數(shù)減預(yù)計(jì)今年的數(shù))是這樣嗎
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1、【修正移動平均法】是對給出的預(yù)測值進(jìn)行修正,題目中會給出上期預(yù)測值。預(yù)測結(jié)果為本期預(yù)測值(移動平均法)的基礎(chǔ)上加上本期預(yù)測值(移動平均法)與上期預(yù)測值(移動平均法)之差。
2、公式為:修正后的預(yù)測銷售量=未修正的預(yù)測銷售量+(未修正的預(yù)測銷售量-預(yù)測期前一期的預(yù)測銷售量)
3、舉例:如某種產(chǎn)品銷售量的平滑系數(shù)為0.4,1996年實(shí)際銷售量為31萬件,預(yù)測銷售量為33萬件。
則1997年的預(yù)測銷售量為:31萬件×0.4+33萬件×(1-0.4)=32.2萬件
2020 08/18 07:43
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2020 08/18 07:45
上面的可以數(shù)字帶入嗎謝謝老師
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2020 08/18 08:25
修正后的預(yù)測銷售量=未修正的預(yù)測銷售量+【加】(未修正的預(yù)測銷售量-預(yù)測期前一期的預(yù)測銷售量)
可以直接帶入數(shù)字的
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2020 08/18 08:27
麻煩老師帶入分析下謝謝
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2020 08/18 08:35
可以參考一下這個例題加深理解
FAILED
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2020 08/18 08:47
老師,就是說預(yù)測移動平均的就是用近三年的預(yù)測平均值
然后修正移動平均法,是用上面預(yù)測的平均值加(預(yù)測平均值減實(shí)際的上年的數(shù))
對嗎
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2020 08/18 08:49
老師,就是說預(yù)測移動平均的就是用近三年的實(shí)際平均值
然后修正移動平均法,是用上面實(shí)際的平均值加(實(shí)際平均值減預(yù)測的上年的數(shù))
對嗎
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2020 08/18 08:49
修正的移動平均法先用移動平均法預(yù)測,然后考慮預(yù)測值的差異進(jìn)行修正。
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2020 08/18 08:49
修正的是先用實(shí)際的數(shù)算,最后減的是預(yù)測數(shù)
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2020 08/18 08:50
是的,先用實(shí)際數(shù)算移動平均,然后在預(yù)測值的基礎(chǔ)上和前期預(yù)測值對比進(jìn)行修正
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