要是有人寄希望于中國(guó)人民幣幣值重估帶來(lái)美國(guó)制造業(yè)迅速?gòu)?fù)蘇，那他們應(yīng)當(dāng)跟中國(guó)沿海一家鞋廠的老板本（Ben）聊聊。

    人們一貫認(rèn)為，2008-09年的嚴(yán)重經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退應(yīng)當(dāng)會(huì)讓像本這樣的中國(guó)出口商元?dú)獯髠?。本要求不透露他的姓，以保護(hù)他的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)。2009年中國(guó)出口量萎縮16%，約2，300萬(wàn)外出務(wù)工者在經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)中失去工作。

    然而去年卻是本有生以來(lái)最好的年頭。在競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手步履維艱之際，本投資200萬(wàn)美元購(gòu)買新設(shè)備，摒棄制作廉價(jià)雜牌鞋子的業(yè)務(wù)，轉(zhuǎn)向鋼頭工作靴、徒步鞋以及名牌運(yùn)動(dòng)鞋。他現(xiàn)在為知名西方公司生產(chǎn)這些鞋子。他的工廠生產(chǎn)的產(chǎn)品平均售價(jià)漲了近兩倍，銷售較上年增長(zhǎng)逾50%.

    中國(guó)已經(jīng)將大衰退轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)榇髾C(jī)遇，2008年11月至2009年11月，美國(guó)進(jìn)口的商品中，中國(guó)產(chǎn)品的份額從15.9%增加到19.1%.無(wú)論中國(guó)政府在人民幣匯率方面有何動(dòng)作，該份額只會(huì)上升。多年來(lái)，憑借低估的人民幣幣值，中國(guó)獲取了市場(chǎng)份額，建設(shè)了基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施以供應(yīng)全球市場(chǎng)，如今，中國(guó)在某些行業(yè)已經(jīng)確立了牢不可破的優(yōu)勢(shì)，即便人民幣幣值重估，也不會(huì)導(dǎo)致大量定單轉(zhuǎn)向其他國(guó)家。

    美國(guó)消費(fèi)者大肆揮霍的那些年是中國(guó)出口商的黃金時(shí)代，而本輪經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退則有如一年期MBA課程：它迫使幸存的出口商關(guān)注盈利，加大研發(fā)和產(chǎn)品設(shè)計(jì)方面的投入，并為自己的產(chǎn)品尋找新的市場(chǎng)。本說(shuō)，我們需要降低勞動(dòng)力密集程度，提高生產(chǎn)率，否則定單就會(huì)被競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手搶走。他算了一下，光是他所在的城市就有大約6，000家對(duì)手。

    大衰退還突出了中國(guó)對(duì)于全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的重要性，強(qiáng)化了其作為貨源地的吸引力。但眾多公司越來(lái)越想在中國(guó)銷售產(chǎn)品，而不僅僅是制造產(chǎn)品。位于芝加哥的會(huì)計(jì)及咨詢機(jī)構(gòu)Plante & Moran的全球服務(wù)主管Lou Longo說(shuō)，他認(rèn)為美國(guó)公司從中國(guó)工廠進(jìn)貨不僅僅是想借較低的成本得利，而是要了解當(dāng)?shù)厥袌?chǎng)。

    各個(gè)行業(yè)的情況都一樣：即便美國(guó)進(jìn)口商品這個(gè)大蛋糕整體縮水了，但中國(guó)還是搶了塊大的。美國(guó)人口普查局（Census Bureau）數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2009年前九個(gè)月，81種中國(guó)輸美產(chǎn)品的美國(guó)進(jìn)口量增加了逾20%，價(jià)格下降至少20%.

    這些產(chǎn)品中大約四分之一為紡織品、服裝或鞋類。位于南卡羅萊納州的國(guó)際貿(mào)易數(shù)據(jù)供應(yīng)商世界貿(mào)易信息服務(wù)股份公司（Global Trade Information Services）的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，去年1-9月，中國(guó)產(chǎn)非針織服裝及面料占美國(guó)此類產(chǎn)品進(jìn)口的份額從37.2%增加到41.6%.消費(fèi)電子產(chǎn)品中，中國(guó)產(chǎn)品的份額從31.9%增加到33.9%.藥品、照相機(jī)、醫(yī)學(xué)設(shè)備、陶瓷、橡膠、塑料甚至魚類和海產(chǎn)品，中國(guó)的份額都有所增長(zhǎng)。

    以羅非魚為例：2009年前十個(gè)月，美國(guó)進(jìn)口自中國(guó)的冷凍羅非魚片數(shù)量猛增15%.西雅圖魚類加工商HQ Sustainable從中國(guó)海南省的漁場(chǎng)進(jìn)貨，該公司首席執(zhí)行長(zhǎng)斯玻恩斯（Norbert Sporns）預(yù)計(jì)，美國(guó)出售的80%的冷凍羅非魚來(lái)自中國(guó)。

    他說(shuō)，我們選中海南的主要原因不是廉價(jià)勞動(dòng)力，而是因?yàn)檎闹С郑驗(yàn)楹侠硪?guī)劃的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施。他說(shuō)，美國(guó)大多數(shù)州都不對(duì)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施進(jìn)行規(guī)劃以發(fā)展水產(chǎn)業(yè)。由于擔(dān)心養(yǎng)魚場(chǎng)會(huì)破壞環(huán)境，水產(chǎn)業(yè)在美國(guó)爭(zhēng)議很大。

    電腦和電子消費(fèi)品也是這個(gè)道理。中國(guó)的角色現(xiàn)在已不止于裝配車間：國(guó)際知名電子產(chǎn)品品牌以前在中國(guó)裝配產(chǎn)品，然后運(yùn)往其他國(guó)家“加工”，即為某個(gè)市場(chǎng)定制用戶手冊(cè)、電源線或鍵盤。比如說(shuō)，針對(duì)歐洲市場(chǎng)的電腦會(huì)在荷蘭加工。如今它們就在華南的深圳加工。隨著大牌廠家簡(jiǎn)化供應(yīng)鏈以減少存貨、縮短產(chǎn)品上市時(shí)間，將這些服務(wù)轉(zhuǎn)到產(chǎn)品生產(chǎn)線所在的中國(guó)要比將生產(chǎn)線轉(zhuǎn)到其他地方更容易。

    這些例子顯示出美國(guó)公司削減成本的舉措如何推動(dòng)其將業(yè)務(wù)轉(zhuǎn)向中國(guó)，以及中國(guó)廠商如何增強(qiáng)自身在匯率政策之外的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)。事實(shí)上，預(yù)期人民幣將重估的中國(guó)工廠已經(jīng)在加強(qiáng)防范。前文所述的鞋廠老板本就將供應(yīng)商的定單整合起來(lái)發(fā)貨，以節(jié)省物流成本，限制使用空調(diào)以降低電費(fèi)，并安裝太陽(yáng)能電池板和LED燈管，從而讓工廠達(dá)到當(dāng)?shù)卣囊笠垣@得一筆小規(guī)模的補(bǔ)貼，政府為投資環(huán)保技術(shù)的公司提供補(bǔ)貼。

    支持中國(guó)進(jìn)行人民幣重估的人常常聲稱，這會(huì)有助于在高消費(fèi)的美國(guó)人和高儲(chǔ)蓄的中國(guó)人之間實(shí)現(xiàn)全球性的再平衡。事實(shí)上，中國(guó)在制造方面擁有強(qiáng)勁的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)，無(wú)論匯率有何變化，中國(guó)在可預(yù)見(jiàn)的未來(lái)都將保持這種優(yōu)勢(shì)。問(wèn)問(wèn)本就知道了。

    Anyone pinning their hopes on a rapid revival in American manufacturing as a result of a revaluation of China's currency needs to meet Ben,the owner of a coastal Chinese shoe factory.

    Conventional wisdom holds that exporters in China like Ben,a Chinese man who asked that his surname be withheld to protect his competitive advantage,should have been devastated by the Great Recession of 2008-09. China's export volume shrank 16% in 2009,and some 23 million migrant workers lost their jobs in the downturn.

    But last year was Ben's best ever. As his competitors teetered,Ben invested $2 million in new equipment to shift away from making cheap,no-brand shoes and into steel-toe work boots,hiking shoes and branded athletic footwear. He now produces these under contract for well-known Western companies. Ben's average selling price has almost tripled. Sales are up more than 50% year-on-year.

    China has turned the Great Recession into the Great Opportunity,growing its share of imports in the United States to 19.1% from 15.9% between November 2008 and November 2009. That share is only going to increase,regardless of what Beijing does with the yuan. After years of accumulating market share and building the infrastructure to supply the global market with the help of an undervalued currency,China's advantage is so entrenched in certain industries that a yuan revaluation is unlikely to divert substantial volumes of orders to other countries.

    While the years of profligate American consumer spending were boom times for Chinese exporters,the slowdown was like a one-year MBA program:It forced surviving exporters to focus on the bottom line,invest more in research,development and product design,and find new markets for their products. "We need to reduce labor intensity and improve productivity,or else we'll lose orders to our competitors," says Ben,who counts some 6，000 rivals in his city alone.

    The Great Recession also threw into relief China's importance to global economic growth,reinforcing its allure as a sourcing destination. Companies increasingly want to sell to China,not simply manufacture there. Lou Longo,head of global services at Chicago-based advisory group Plante & Moran,says he sees U.S. companies buying from factories in China not only to take advantage of lower costs,but to learn their way around the local market.

    In sector after sector,the story is the same:Even as the total pie of U.S. imports shrank,China amassed a larger piece. In the first nine months of 2009,there were 81 products from China that saw imports to the U.S. expand by more than 20% and prices decline by at least 20%,according to data from the Census Bureau.

    Of those products,roughly one-quarter were textiles,apparel or shoes. Between January and November,China's share of nonknitted apparel and clothing imports into the U.S. rose to 41.6% from 37.2%,according to Global Trade Information Services,a South Carolina-based supplier of international trade data. Its share of consumer electronics rose to 33.9% from 31.9%. In pharmaceuticals,cameras,medical devices,ceramics,rubber,plastics and even fish and seafood,China has gained share.

    Take tilapia:American imports from China of frozen fillets of this popular fish leapt 15% by volume in the first ten months of 2009. Norbert Sporns,chief executive of HQ Sustainable,a Seattle-based fish processor that buys from aquaculture farms in the southern Chinese province of Hainan,estimates about 80% of frozen tilapia sold in the U.S. comes from China.

    'The major reason why we're sited in Hainan is not because of cheaper labor,but because of government support,because of the infrastructure that is laid out properly," he says. Most U.S. states,he says,"choose not to lay out the infrastructure' to support aquaculture. Concerns about environmental damage from fish farming make aquaculture controversial in the U.S.

    The same logic applies to computers and consumer electronics. China's role now extends beyond assembly:Big global electronics brands used to assemble their products in China and then ship them to other countries for 'flavoring' —— industry lingo for tailoring a user manual,power supply cord or keyboard to an individual market. Computers destined for Europe would be flavored in Holland,for instance. Today,they are flavored in Shenzhen,in southern China. As big brands streamline their supply chains to reduce inventory and shorten products' time to market,it's easier to move these services to China,where the products are made,than to move the manufacturing elsewhere.

    These examples show both how U.S. companies' cost-cutting efforts are driving business to China and how Chinese manufacturers have boosted their competitiveness independent of currency policy. Indeed,Chinese factories are already shoring up their defenses in anticipation of a revaluation. Ben,the shoe factory owner,is consolidating orders from suppliers into fewer shipments to save on logistics costs,limiting air conditioner use to cut his electricity bill,and installing solar panels and LED lights to qualify for a modest local government subsidy for companies that invest in environmentally friendly technology.

    Proponents of a Chinese revaluation often claim it would contribute to a global rebalancing between high-consuming Americans and high-saving Chinese. The reality is that China has strong competitive advantages in manufacturing that will exist for the foreseeable future,whatever the exchange rate. Just ask Ben.