Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, the Indonesian president, has launched a national drive to encourage his countrymen to grow their own chilli peppers. The South Korean government has released emergency supplies of cabbage, pork, mackerel, radish and other staples as part of President Lee Myung-bak’s war on inflation. This week, the Indian cabinet met to discuss the soaring price of onions, an issue reputed to have caused the downfall of two previous administrations. As in 2007-08, the topic of food inflation – even food security – has percolated to the very top of the political agenda.

　　印尼總統(tǒng)蘇西洛·班邦·尤多約諾(Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono)已向全國發(fā)出呼吁，鼓勵民眾自行種植紅辣椒。韓國政府動用了卷心菜、豬肉、鯖魚、蘿卜及其它日常食品的應(yīng)急儲備，這是韓國總統(tǒng)李明博(Lee Myung-bak)抵御通脹的努力之一。印度內(nèi)閣日前也召開會議，討論洋蔥價格飆升的問題——人們普遍認為，正是這一問題導(dǎo)致了之前兩屆政府的下臺。與2007-08年一樣，有關(guān)食品通脹甚至是食品安全的話題，已經(jīng)成為各國政府的當務(wù)之急。

　　The spectre of inflation has rattled investors. India’s stock market has fallen 5 percent since the start of the year. Indonesian shares, among the world’s best performers in 2010, have slid 7 per cent in a few days. Central banks are caught in a bind. Bank Indonesia, citing concerns that higher interest rates could attract more inflows of hot money, last week left rates unchanged for the 17th month in a row. That has prompted concerns that Indonesia’s monetary-policy horse might be clopping along far behind the inflationary cart.

　　通脹“幽靈”令投資者惶惶不安。新年伊始，印度股市已下跌5%。2010年的表現(xiàn)在全球名列前茅的印尼股市，數(shù)日之內(nèi)也已跌去7%。各國央行都陷入了困境。印尼央行(Bank Indonesia)上周決定維持利率不變，這也是該行連續(xù)第17個月維持利率不變，原因是擔心上調(diào)利率會吸引更多的熱錢流入。這不禁讓人們擔憂，印尼的貨幣政策可能正遠遠滯后于通脹增速。

　　In China, too, higher food prices are feeding inflation, which scaled 5 percent in November, well above the official 3 per cent target. One of the unorthodox countermeasures taken by Chinese authorities has been to allow vegetable trucks to travel toll-free on highways – a sort of quantitative easing for carrots and aubergines.

　　中國亦是如此。食品價格的上漲正加劇通脹——中國去年11月份通脹率達到5%，遠高于3%的官方目標。中國政府采取了一系列非常規(guī)對策，其中之一是允許蔬菜運輸車輛免繳高速公路通行費——這某種程度上相當于對蘿卜和茄子施行定量寬松。

　　Beyond the immediate inflationary anxieties, the real question is whether high food prices are here to stay. Many investors are betting that rising living standards across the emerging world, particularly in China and India – with 2.5bn people between them – will exert long-term upward pressure on the cost of food.

　　除了迫在眉睫的通脹焦慮，真正的問題在于食品價格高企的局面是否會持續(xù)下去。許多投資者正押注于整個新興世界（尤其是總?cè)丝谶_25億的中國和印度）生活水準的日益提升、將對食品成本構(gòu)成長期上行壓力。

　　Nearly three years ago, when food-price rises sparked riots in several poor countries, Robert Feldman, an economist at Morgan Stanley, put out a note called “Buy Chicken!!” Since poultry has a far lower “feed conversion rate” than pigs or cows, he said, it was more economical. As more people ate meat, he predicted, the economics of chicken would speak (perhaps cluck) for itself. In similar vein, Nomura last September published a report called “The coming surge in food prices”, in which it built an investment strategy around fertiliser producers, farm-machinery makers and assorted shippers and storers of food.

　　近3年前，好幾個窮國因食品價格上漲而爆發(fā)騷亂。當時，摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)經(jīng)濟學(xué)家羅伯特·費爾德曼(Robert Feldman)發(fā)布了一份名為《購買雞肉》(Buy Chicken!!)的報告。他表示，由于家禽的“飼料轉(zhuǎn)化率”遠遠低于豬或牛，因此更為經(jīng)濟。他還預(yù)測，隨著更多的人吃肉，雞肉的經(jīng)濟效益會不言（也許要說“鳴”）而喻。野村(Nomura)去年9月份也發(fā)布了一份類似的報告，題為“食品價格即將飆升”(The coming surge in food prices)。在報告中，野村提出了一個圍繞著化肥生產(chǎn)商、農(nóng)業(yè)機械制造商、以及形形色色的食品運輸商和儲備者的投資戰(zhàn)略。

　　One possible response to the question about the likelihood of a structural rise in food prices is: let’s hope so. Higher prices would partly reflect greater demand from the billion-plus people in the world who are still poorly nourished. As Amartya Sen, India’s Nobel prize-winning economist, points out, too many Indians remain ill-fed. By some estimates, no fewer than half the country’s children are malnourished. If the 500m or so Indians living in poverty today began to eat half-decently, that alone would have a substantial impact on food demand.

　　對于目前食品價格的上漲有多大可能是結(jié)構(gòu)性的問題，一個可能的回應(yīng)是：期望如此。漲價在一定程度上反映出，全球逾十億營養(yǎng)不良人口的需求有所提升。正如印度諾貝爾經(jīng)濟學(xué)獎獲得者阿瑪?shù)賮?森(Amartya Sen)所指出的，目前仍有太多印度人營養(yǎng)不良。一些人估計，該國至少有半數(shù)的兒童營養(yǎng)不良。如果眼下仍生活在貧困線以下的約5億印度人開始吃得像樣一些，僅此一點，就會對食品需求產(chǎn)生重大影響。

　　Of course, as Thomas Malthus famously underestimated, rising demand for food is not bad so long as supply keeps pace. Between 1965 and 1998, the global population rose from 3.3bn to 5.9bn, but real food prices actually fell.

　　當然，只要供應(yīng)跟得上，食品需求不斷上漲并非壞事，而眾所周知，托馬斯·馬爾薩斯(Thomas Malthus)對這一點估計不足。1965年至1998年間，全球人口從33億激增至59億，但實際食品價格實際上有所下降。

　　In China, periodic bouts of food inflation notwithstanding, farm production has kept up with the rising demand. Despite the fact that its people consume more calories and more grain-intensive meat, China has remained a net food exporter, says Jonathan Anderson, economist at UBS. It has done a good job of improving yields through better irrigation, use of fertiliser and land reform to encourage the creation of bigger farms. Agricultural production has risen in spite of the fact that some farmland has been lost to urbanisation. Today’s global food-price increases are more the result of a supply shock caused by fires in Russia and floods in Australia than by a sudden surge in demand from China – or anywhere else.

　　在中國，盡管不時會出現(xiàn)食品通脹，但農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)一直跟得上日漸上漲的需求。瑞銀(UBS)經(jīng)濟學(xué)家喬納森?安德森(Jonathan Anderson)表示，雖然中國人消耗的卡路里和大量耗費谷物的肉類有所增加，但中國仍是一個食品凈出口國。中國通過更好的灌溉、化肥使用以及鼓勵農(nóng)田合并的土地改革，大幅提高了產(chǎn)出。盡管城市化過程吞沒了許多耕地，但農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)有所提升。目前全球食品價格上漲，更大程度上是由于俄羅斯大火和澳大利亞水災(zāi)造成的供應(yīng)緊張，而非中國或其它哪個國家的需求突然激增。

　　Nor are high prices necessarily harmful. For one thing, they can help to transfer wealth from more affluent cities to the generally poorer countryside. In theory, higher prices should also encourage investment in farming and related infrastructure, increasing output.

　　食品價格高企也不一定就是壞事。首先，這有利于財富從相對較富裕的城市、轉(zhuǎn)移到普遍較貧窮的農(nóng)村。從理論上講，價格上漲還應(yīng)該會促進對農(nóng)業(yè)及相關(guān)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的投資，由此增加產(chǎn)出。

　　Food, unlike hydrocarbons, is a renewable resource. But land, water and energy – farming requirements all – are finite. Fish stocks, though replenishable, can be exhausted. Yoichi Funabashi, a Japanese foreign policy expert, says the underlying cause of last year’s diplomatic clash between China and Japan over disputed islands was a struggle for marine protein.

　　與碳氫化合物不同，糧食是可再生資源。但作為農(nóng)耕必要條件的土地、水和能源卻是有限的。漁業(yè)資源盡管可再生，卻有可能耗盡。日本外交政策專家船橋洋一(Yoichi Funabashi)表示，去年中日兩國就爭議島嶼發(fā)生外交沖突，根本原因是為了爭奪漁業(yè)資源。

　　The biggest constraint to ever-higher production may be energy, the proximate cause of the 2007-08 food-price shock. The more modern farming becomes, the more heavily it relies on hydrocarbons in the form of fertiliser, as well as fuel for tractors and transport. In the words of John Gray, a British political philosopher: “Intensive agriculture is the extraction of food from petroleum.”

　　制約產(chǎn)出不斷提高最主要的因素可能要算是能源——能源也是導(dǎo)致2007——08年食品價格危機的直接原因。農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展得越現(xiàn)代化，對化肥、以及拖拉機和運輸工具燃料等碳氫化合物的依賴程度就越高。用英國政治哲學(xué)家約翰?格雷(John Gray)的話講：“集約農(nóng)業(yè)就是從石油中開采糧食。”

　　That is borne out by a recent curiosity. Research by two economists at the International Monetary Fund finds a close correlation between the price of oil and fine wine. What is true for wine will hold for rice, wheat, potatoes and onions. If the growth of India and China is destined permanently to inflate the cost of energy, it’s a pretty safe bet it will have the same effect on the cost of food.

　　最近一項新發(fā)現(xiàn)證實了這一點。國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)的兩位經(jīng)濟學(xué)家經(jīng)過研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，油價與高檔酒價格之間存在緊密關(guān)聯(lián)。油價與大米、小麥、土豆和洋蔥的價格之間亦是如此。如果印度和中國的增長必然會不斷推高能源成本，那么肯定也會對食品成本產(chǎn)生同樣的影響。