China could be preparing to hit the accelerator on currency appreciation. But before we all get carried away, the yuan isn't necessarily going to go up forever.

　　中國可能正在為踩下人民幣升值的油門做準備，但在所有人歡呼雀躍之前，請別忘了，人民幣不一定永遠保持升勢。

　　You can see that view in the market's ambivalence toward longer-dated yuan debt sold in Hong Kong. The tenor of most of those products is between one and three years. Investors appear confident of appreciation over that time frame, bankers say. After that, it's a crap shoot.

　　Associated Press在山東臨沂一家農村信用合作社，一位職員正在點人民幣。市場對于在香港出售的較長期人民幣計價債券的態(tài)度搖擺不定，這其中就體現(xiàn)了上述觀點。那些人民幣產品中，大多數(shù)是一年至三年期。銀行業(yè)人士說，似乎投資者對這段時期內的人民幣升值抱有信心，而超過這個時間段，就成了擲骰子的賭博游戲。

　　They're right to be cautious. Most people think the government has the wherewithal to stave off a future banking crisis, but given the volume of China's lending in recent years as part of an officially sanctioned stimulus plan, the chances that things get ugly and lead to currency stasis or a selloff aren't negligible.

　　投資者所持的謹慎態(tài)度沒錯。大多數(shù)人認為，中國政府有能力避免日后發(fā)生銀行危機，但考慮到中國近年來的放貸數(shù)量(這是官方認可的經濟刺激計劃的一部分)，形勢變糟以及出現(xiàn)貨幣滯漲或拋售的可能性不容忽視。

　　In the shorter term, of course, the consensus is that the yuan (also known as the renminbi, or RMB) is a one-way bet. What's more, its gains look ready to pick up speed.

　　當然，短期來看，目前一致認為人民幣是一個單向賭注。另外，人民幣的升值步伐看似要加快。

　　The case for faster yuan appreciation got a boost from comments by Chinese officials, including Premier Wen Jiabao and a top official at the People's Bank of China, suggesting a stronger currency could be a weapon against inflation. China's consumer-price index rose 5.4% in March and has been gathering steam despite repeated credit tightening by the country's central bank. A stronger yuan lowers the effective cost of imported goods. Li-Gang Liu, China economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group, predicts pressure from rising prices for imports like oil, iron ore and soybeans will push the yuan-dollar rate 6% higher for the year.

　　人民幣或將快速升值從中國國務院總理溫家寶和中國央行行長周小川等多位中國官員講話的提振，暗示人民幣升值或許是抵御通貨膨脹的有力武器。3月份中國消費者價格指數(shù)(CPI)同比升5.4%，盡管央行一再收緊信貸政策，但CPI的升勢絲毫未減。人民幣升值可減少進口商品的實際成本。澳新銀行(Australia & New Zealand Banking Group)研究中國問題的經濟學家劉利剛預測，石油、鐵礦石和大豆等進口商品價格不斷上漲帶來的壓力將推動人民幣兌美元今年累計升值6%。

　　The one-way bet makes things challenging for Chinese policy makers. Even if they see the logic behind pushing the currency higher, they worry that speculators lured by the certainty of the bet will find their way around the country's capital controls (as they often have) and flood their economy with potentially destabilizing “hot money.”

　　對于中國決策者而言，單向押注人民幣可使情況變得富于挑戰(zhàn)性。即使他們知道提高人民幣匯率的做法是有道理的，他們也仍會擔心投機者因受到押注必贏的誘惑，會想盡辦法避開中國的資本控制(這是他們的經常做法)，并讓那些可能極不穩(wěn)定的“熱錢”大規(guī)模涌入中國經濟。

　　This is one reason some speculate China's leaders might opt for a one-time, hefty currency revaluation of, say, 10%. The idea is that such a move would eliminate appreciation pressure in one fell swoop and allow the PBOC a chance to keep the market guessing as to the yuan's future direction. However, there's no indication the idea is anything more than talk, and given the damage such a move would inflict on Chinese exporters and employment, China's penchant for gradualism is probably a safer bet.

　　這是為什么有些人推測中國領導人可能選擇讓人民幣一次性大幅升值10%的一個原因。這樣做將一舉消除人民幣的升值壓力，也使得中國央行有可能讓市場持續(xù)猜測人民幣的未來走勢。然而，沒有跡象顯示這種想法只是說說而已。鑒于此舉給中國出口商和就業(yè)將帶來負面影響，中國偏愛的漸進式舉措可能是更保險的做法。

　　Expectations of yuan appreciation are the fuel that is driving rapid growth in the offshore market for China's currency, particularly in Hong Kong. International investors are piling money into offshore-yuan bonds despite yields far lower than those available to domestic investors. The reason is their conviction that a strengthening renminbi will goose their dollar-based returns to levels well beyond what they can earn with an investment in U.S. dollars, or Hong Kong dollars, which are pegged to the greenback.

　　人民幣升值預期是人民幣離岸市場、特別是在香港的離岸市場迅速成長的推動力。雖然人民幣離岸債券收益率遠低于境內投資者可獲得的收益率，但境外投資者依然在把大量資金投入人民幣離岸債券。原因在于，他們相信人民幣的升值將會使他們以美元計算的投資回報遠遠高于用美元或與美元掛鉤的港元投資所能獲得的回報。

　　'The reason that RMB internationalization is exciting in Hong Kong, that people are playing it, is the appreciation,' says Romnesh Lamba, executive vice president and head of market development at Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing Ltd., the owner of Hong Kong's stock exchange.

　　香港交易及結算所有限公司(Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing Ltd.)行政副總裁兼市場發(fā)展執(zhí)行總監(jiān)羅力(Romnesh Lamba)說，人民幣國際化在香港激動人心，大家都在參與，原因就在于升值。

　　HKEx is taking advantage of those expectations by launching its newest toy, the first yuan-denominated stock sold outside mainland China, which begins trading on Friday. “If you take the appreciation away, they may not play it,” he says, “and the equity product may never take off.”

　　為了利用人民幣升值預期獲利，港交所推出它的最新產品，也就是第一只在中國內地以外發(fā)行的人民幣股票。這只股票將在周五開始交易。羅力說，如果沒有升值因素，他們可能就不會參與其中了，股權產品可能也永遠無法起步。

　　Even short term, though, appreciation may not be such a sure thing.

　　但是，哪怕就是短線來看，升值也不是一件十分確定的事情。

　　Robert Reilly, co-head of flow fixed income and currencies for Asia at Société Générale, calls it a high-risk assumption. He points to the potential impact on global markets from sovereign-debt problems in Europe and mounting concerns over the outlook for U.S. government debt.

　　法國興業(yè)銀行(Societe Generale)固定收益和外匯業(yè)務亞洲區(qū)聯(lián)席負責人將人民幣的升值稱為一種高風險假設。他列舉的理由包括歐洲主權債務危機可能對全球市場造成的影響，以及人們對美國國債前景越來越濃重的擔憂。

　　"If we see that hit U.S. investor confidence, and that hits equities, all bets are off the table for China to appreciate the currency," he says.

　　他說，如果美國投資者信心因此受到打擊，股市受到打擊，那么就無法指望中國允許人民幣升值了。

　　For now, underpinned by widespread confidence in the appreciation story, the yuan's internationalization marches on. Renminbi deposits in Hong Kong's banking system could reach one trillion yuan ($154 billion) by the end of the year, some economists believe, up from 407 billion yuan at the end of February. At that point, the market might be deep enough to weather a change in the currency's outlook.

　　目前在普遍的升值預期支撐下，人民幣國際化繼續(xù)推進。一些經濟學家相信，香港銀行系統(tǒng)的人民幣存款有望在年內從2月底的4,070億元增至1萬億元（合1,540億美元）。屆時市場的深度或許足以承受人民幣匯率預期的變化。

　　Still, "if the RMB were to be a depreciating currency, there would probably be a lack of strong demand for that," says Mr. Li, the ANZ economist. "Definitely the market would turn."

　　但澳新銀行的劉利剛說，如果人民幣是在貶值，可能就不存在強勁需求，市場肯定會發(fā)生轉折。