24周年

財稅實務 高薪就業(yè) 學歷教育
APP下載
APP下載新用戶掃碼下載
立享專屬優(yōu)惠

安卓版本:8.7.30 蘋果版本:8.7.30

開發(fā)者:北京正保會計科技有限公司

應用涉及權限:查看權限>

APP隱私政策:查看政策>

HD版本上線:點擊下載>

短線觀點:中國軟著陸的幻覺(雙語)

來源: 互聯網 編輯: 2011/07/15 16:08:42  字體:

  An early effort to amaze cinema goers with special effects was Le Thaumaturge Chinois, a 1904 French film about a Chinese conjurer.

  1904年,法國拍攝了一部有關中國魔術師的電影——《中國魔術》(Le Thaumaturge Chinois),這是首部試圖用特技效果讓觀眾驚嘆的影片之一。

  Modern Beijing may not be about turning dogs into women or making lamps appear out of thin air. But it engaged in a trick just as complex: trying to slow the overheating economy without plunging the country into a recession.

  現代的中國政府也許無意把狗變成女郎,或者在空空如也的地方變出燈來。但它施展的“魔術”同樣復雜:試圖減緩過熱的經濟,同時又不至于讓國家陷入一場衰退。

  Figures on Wednesday suggest it is not having much success. Growth in gross domestic product accelerated from the first to the second quarter, and was only marginally down year-on-year.

  周三發(fā)布的數據表明,中國政府在這方面做的不太成功。從第一季度到第二季度,國內生產總值(GDP)的增長有所加快,只是按同比計算才略有放緩。

  There was some good news in the figures, which showed a degree of rebalancing from exports to consumption. But this was overshadowed by further evidence of the out-of-control housing and office construction boom. In June investment in new property jumped 29 percent over the previous year; in the first six months Rmb2,625bn ($404bn) was pumped into construction, up by a third.

  這批數據中有一些好消息,顯示出某種程度上的再平衡(從出口轉向消費)。但令其遜色的是,有進一步證據證明,住宅和辦公樓的建筑熱潮仍未得到遏制。6月份,新房產的投資同比大增29%;今年頭6個月,投入建筑業(yè)的資金為2.625萬億元人民幣(合4040億美元),增長了三分之一。

  Industrial production and retail sales were also surprisingly strong in June.

  6月份的工業(yè)產出和零售銷售額也強勁得出人意料。

  All this suggests further rate hikes ahead. But as the economy has not slowed significantly in response to the four hikes since Christmas Eve (plus bank lending restrictions and price controls), the chance that the central bank goes too far must be increasing.

  這一切似乎說明,中國央行將進一步上調利率。但是,在中國經濟面對去年12月24日以來的4次加息(加上銀行放貸限制和價格管制)尚未顯著放緩之際,中國央行收緊過度的幾率肯定也在加大。

  Investors took no notice of that risk on Wednesday. Even before Ben Bernanke’s unsubtle hint that QE3 – more quantitative easing – was an option if the economy worsens, Asian equities were given a big boost by the Chinese data.

  周三,投資者對這種風險不屑一顧。即便在本?伯南克(Ben Bernanke)并不含蓄地暗示,若經濟惡化,QE3(第三輪量化寬松)將是一個選擇之前,中國經濟數據就有力提振了亞洲股市。

  This makes no sense. It is also a reversal of moves earlier this year, when bad news on the Chinese economy was taken as good news by investors, as they hoped for a soft landing. Shareholders seem to have an unshakeable faith in the ability of the Chinese authorities to control the economy. The danger is growing that this is just an illusion.

  這是不合邏輯的。這也是今年早些時候市場行為的逆轉,那時候,投資者將有關中國經濟的壞消息當作好消息,因為他們希望出現軟著陸。股民們似乎對中國當局調控經濟的能力抱有不可動搖的信念。越來越大的危險是,這一切都是幻覺。

我要糾錯】 責任編輯:梓墨

實務學習指南

回到頂部
折疊
網站地圖

Copyright © 2000 - m.yinshua168.com.cn All Rights Reserved. 北京正保會計科技有限公司 版權所有

京B2-20200959 京ICP備20012371號-7 出版物經營許可證 京公網安備 11010802044457號