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Over the years, there have been lots of explanations from why Chinese save so much. Here's a new one: the worse that Chinese banks treat their customers, the more that Chinese customers save, an International Monetary Fund study says.
多年來,有關(guān)中國人為什么喜歡大量儲蓄有過許多解釋。現(xiàn)在這其中又要新增一條:國際貨幣基金組織(International Monetary Fund,簡稱:IMF)的一項研究發(fā)現(xiàn),中國的銀行支付的存款利率越低,中國人的儲蓄率越高。
Since the mid-19990s, China's urban household savings rate has increased to 30% of disposable income from 19%. That's also been a time period when China's per-capita income has risen five-fold. It would make sense that the richer that people became, the less they would save. But in China, it's the opposite.
自上世紀90年代中期開始,中國城市家庭的儲蓄占可支配收入的比重從19%上升至30%。同期中國人均收入增長了四倍。按理說,人們越富裕,儲蓄率越低才對??墒侵袊那闆r正好相反。
Why?
這是為什么?
Some economists argue that the Chinese save to make up for a lousy pension and health-care system, knowing that they'll have to pay steeply if they get sick. Others say the Chinese want to buy apartments, which China's communist government made widely available for sale in the late '90s. Still others say that families of boys save especially a lot because they want to be able to help make their sons better marriage bait.
一些經(jīng)濟學(xué)家認為,中國人增加儲蓄是因為中國的養(yǎng)老和醫(yī)保體系還很不完善。中國人清楚,一旦生病他們就要大把花錢。其他人則認為中國人儲蓄是想買房,中國政府在上世紀90年代末實施了住房商品化改革。然而還有一些人說,生了男孩兒的家庭儲蓄尤其多是因為父母想幫助兒子更容易地娶到媳婦。
IMF economist Malhar Nabar has a different theory. The Chinese, he says, have a target amount of savings in mind to pay for homes, appliances, health care and what have you. And they will try to reach that target no matter what.
對此,IMF的經(jīng)濟學(xué)家納巴(Malhar Nabar)有不同看法。他說,中國人心中有一個儲蓄目標,因為他們有買房、購置家電、支付醫(yī)保賬單等一系列支出。無論發(fā)生什么情況,他們總會努力實現(xiàn)這個目標。
So when banks pay less interest, after adjusting for inflation, they'll save more. And when they pay higher interest, they'll save less because it's then easier for them to hit their targets.
因此,當(dāng)銀行減少支付的利息之后(經(jīng)通脹因素調(diào)整),中國居民會增加儲蓄。而銀行增加支付的利息后,中國居民便會減少儲蓄,這是因為他們會更容易地實現(xiàn)自己的儲蓄目標。
Since 1996, the rates at Chinese banks have gotten progressively worse ─ meaning that they have fallen further and further below the rate of inflation. As a result, the Chinese have saved more and more. Thus, the worse the banks treat their customers, the more their customers save.
自1996年以來,中國商業(yè)銀行支付的存款利率日益降低,這意味著存款利率和通貨膨脹率的差距越來越大。因此,中國人的儲蓄率越來越高。所以才有本文開頭的結(jié)論:在中國,存款利率越低,儲蓄率越高。
“A sustained increase in the interest rates on bank deposits, and wider access to alternative investment opportunities would make it easier for households to meet their target saving accumulation,” Nabar writes. In other words, they would save less when the banks treated them better.
納巴寫道,持續(xù)提高銀行存款利率并拓寬居民進行其它投資的渠道能令中國家庭更易實現(xiàn)他們的儲蓄目標。換句話說,如果銀行能提高存款利率,中國家庭就會降低儲蓄率。
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