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9.1%: Call it a statistical quirk or an odd bit of political-economic synchronicity. Reuters
9.1%,是統計上的詭異巧合,還是政治經濟的一絲同步性?
China's growth rate for the third quarter - 9.1% ─ has coincided with September's unemployment rate in the U.S., also 9.1%. It's a stark reminder of the differences that face the world's two largest economies.
中國三季度經濟增速為9.1%,巧合的是,美國9月份的失業(yè)率也是9.1%。這強烈地顯示出世界最大的兩個經濟體所面臨的不同境況。
We'll have to wait to see if this numerical convergence gives rhetorical ammunition to supporters of congressional legislation to reprimand China for its currency policy. Supporters contend that China's policy of managing the yuan's value against the dollar is a cause of America's unemployment woes. An undervalued currency makes a country's goods more competitive and attracts manufacturers (i.e. job creators) seeking lower production costs. The bill passed the Senate earlier this month. It has yet to be taken up by the House.
數據上的巧合是否會給支持國會立法制裁中國匯率政策的人以口實,這還有待觀察。支持者們認為,中國的匯率政策是美國失業(yè)問題的原因之一。低估匯率可以提高一個國家商品的競爭力,吸引尋求更低生產成本的制造商(即創(chuàng)造就業(yè)崗位的公司)。本月早些時候法案在參議院獲得通過,目前尚待眾議院的投票。
House Speaker John Boehner has come out against the bill, giving free trade proponents comfort that it won't pass. There is a chance, however, that a bipartisan group representatives could buck the speaker and send the bill to the White House. The bill would push the government to use trade laws and international agencies to punish China if it doesn't allow its currency to strengthen substantially.
眾議院議長博納(John Boehner)公開反對議案,這令自由貿易的擁護者松了一口氣──法案不會獲得通過。不過,兩黨眾議員可能會堅決反對議長,投票通過法案,使之送達白宮等待總統簽署成法,這也是有可能的。法案若通過,在中國不允許人民幣大幅升值時,法案將促使政府利用貿易法和國際機構來制裁中國。
Some who worry the bill will spoil an important trade relationship for both sides and think it's premised on flimsy causality, found humor in the two numbers colliding.
有人擔心法案會損害對雙方都重要的貿易關系,并認為法案的前提假設條件是造成的損害不大,這些人發(fā)現可以拿數據的巧合來調侃一番。
'If it gets back to the Washington that the Chinese growth rate is exactly equal to the American unemployment rate, there is going to be an insurrection against Speaker Boehner, and the bill will pass, and we will be in a whole other world of hurt,' joked Strobe Talbott, president of the Brookings Institution and deputy secretary of state in the Clinton administration. He was speaking Tuesday at a forum on U.S.-China relations in Hong Kong sponsored by Brookings, the Asia Society and the University of Hong Kong.
布魯金斯學會(Brookings Institution)總裁、曾在克林頓政府擔任副國務卿的塔爾博特(Strobe Talbott)戲謔道,如果華盛頓意識到中國經濟增長率與美國失業(yè)率絲毫不差,會發(fā)起眾議院“造反”,反對議長博納,法案會因此通過,我們會處于另外一個苦難世界。他周二在香港召開的中美關系論壇上發(fā)表了上述言論。該論壇由布魯金斯學會、亞洲協會(Asia Society)和香港大學主辦。
Mr. Talbott jested that China should somehow retroactively embargo the release of the enviable growth rate to prevent it from reaching Washington before the House of Representatives considers the issue. 'Please shut up on this subject for a couple of hours,' he implored an audience of policy wonks and business executives, who laughed heartily.
塔爾博特調侃道,中國應該撤回這一令人嫉妒的增長率,以防在眾議院審議人民幣匯率法案前,數據被華盛頓看到。他懇求與會的政策研究人士和企業(yè)高管說,幾個小時內請別談這個話題。聽眾爆笑如雷。
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