The growth model on which China has relied for the past three decades is running out of steam – but this does not mean that the end is nigh for the world’s second-biggest economy.

　　中國過去30年倚仗的增長模式正在失去動力，但這并不意味著這個全球第二大經(jīng)濟體的增長即將結(jié)束。

　　For the better part of a decade, leaders have talked about new engines: stronger domestic consumption, greater investment in services and a liberalised financial sector. The question is whether Beijing can finally unleash their potential.

　　近十年的大部分時間里，領導人們已經(jīng)就新的增長引擎展開了討論：提振內(nèi)需，加大服務業(yè)投資和放開金融領域。問題在于，中國政府最終能否釋放它們的潛力。

　　The global financial crisis delayed the transition, pushing the government to crank up investment in property and infrastructure – the crux of the old model – to keep growth aloft.

　　全球金融危機延遲了中國經(jīng)濟的轉(zhuǎn)型，促使中國政府加大對房地產(chǎn)和基礎設施的投資（這是舊模式的核心）來保持高增長。

　　With the economy now slowing again, there are signs that Beijing sees the danger of falling back once more on heavy investment – and that it is this time more serious about launching the structural reforms needed to push the country in a new direction.

　　隨著中國經(jīng)濟增長再次放緩，有跡象顯示，中國政府看到了再次依賴大舉投資的風險，因此這次政府正更加認真地考慮推出結(jié)構(gòu)性改革，這是推動中國經(jīng)濟轉(zhuǎn)向所必需的改革。

　　Loosening the official grip on the renminbi is crucial because a stronger currency would encourage businesses to focus less on exports and more on service industries from healthcare to accountancy. With its trademark gradualism, China has made strides in the past two years on this front. It has created an offshore renminbi market in Hong Kong; though still in its infancy, this has provided a valuable testing ground for a freely traded currency.

　　放松對人民幣匯率的控制至關重要，因為人民幣升值將鼓勵企業(yè)把重點從出口轉(zhuǎn)向服務行業(yè)，從醫(yī)療保健到會計服務。過去兩年內(nèi)，中國已經(jīng)以其標志性的漸進方式，在這方面取得了長足的進步。中國在香港創(chuàng)建了離岸人民幣市場，雖然該市場仍處于初級階段，但它為人民幣自由貿(mào)易提供了寶貴的試驗。

　　Another critical change is to let the market determine interest rates, which would raise the cost of capital, deterring wasteful investment and giving households a better return on their savings. Beijing has begun to experiment around the margins, allowing a wealth management industry to develop that in effect functions like a liberalised banking sector.  

　　另一項關鍵改革是讓市場決定利率，這將提高資金成本，防止浪費性投資，并讓家庭儲蓄獲得更高的回報。中國政府已經(jīng)開始在小范圍內(nèi)進行試驗，允許財富管理行業(yè)發(fā)展出這種功能，實際與銀行部門自由化的效果類似。

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　　Third, the social safety net needs to be fortified. Having smashed the “iron rice bowl” of the Maoist era, China is trying to fill the void by ramping up investment in health, education and welfare. Increased state funding for these will give people the confidence to spend more freely.

　　第三，中國政府需要加強社會保障體系。在打破毛澤東時代的“鐵飯碗”之后，中國正努力通過加大對醫(yī)療、教育和福利方面的投資來填補這方面的空白。政府在這些領域增加投資，將讓民眾有信心更隨心所欲地消費

　　“There has been progress in the past two to three years, but it takes time to build up the social system,” says Wang Tao, an economist with UBS.

　　瑞銀(UBS)經(jīng)濟學家王濤表示：“中國在過去兩三年內(nèi)取得了進步，但構(gòu)建社保體系需要時間。”

　　From the exchange rate to interest rates and savings rates, reformers in Beijing are slowly moving in the right direction. Their challenge is to unlock China’s new growth model before the old one expires.

　　從匯率到利率和儲蓄率，中國政府的改革者正緩慢地朝著正確的方向前進。他們面臨的挑戰(zhàn)是，要在舊模式失效之前開啟中國新的增長模式。