U.S. benchmark oil prices have tumbled since early May, but drivers -- and the economy -- have yet to feel the full benefit.

　　5月上旬以來，美國基準油價已經大幅下跌，但駕車人──以及整個經濟──尚未充分感受到油價下降帶來的好處。

　　While crude-oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange are down 38%, ending last week at $82.26 a barrel, the average price of gas at the pump is down just 9% in that time.

　　紐約商品交易所（New York Mercantile Exchange）原油期貨價格下跌了38%，上周收于每桶82.26美元。但在同一時期，加油站汽油均價僅下降9%。

　　That suggests that some forecasts for an easing of pressure on the U.S. economy may be optimistic, for now. Economists estimate that a $10 drop in oil prices translates to an increase of a few tenths of a percent in gross-domestic product growth. But that is largely dependent on the decline in prices flowing through to consumers. With financial markets tumbling due to fears of a second recession in the U.S. and debt contagion in Europe, dropping fuel costs would be a welcome relief for household budgets and business balance sheets.

　　這說明，一些人預計美國經濟承受的壓力會得到緩解，這種看法目前來看可能是過于樂觀了。經濟學家估計，油價每跌10美元，國內生產總值增幅就會提高零點幾個百分點。但這在很大程度上取決于油價的下跌是否傳導至消費者。在金融市場因擔心美國二次探底、歐洲債務危機蔓延而出現(xiàn)動蕩之際，燃料價格的下降對于家庭財政和企業(yè)資產負債表都會帶來求之不得的緩解。

　　The disparity comes in part because of a quirk in the oil market; U.S. gasoline prices are affected far more by international crude prices, which haven't come down as much as U.S. crude prices. In fact, the gap between international prices and U.S. Nymex oil is at a record high.

　　原油與汽油降價幅度出現(xiàn)這種差異，部分原因在于石油市場的一個怪現(xiàn)象：美國汽油價格受國際原油價格的影響要大得多，而國際原油價格的下跌程度還沒有趕上美國原油價格的下跌。事實上，國際油價與美國紐約商品交易所油價之間的差別已經達到了紀錄高點。

　　Even then, gas prices are still lagging behind. Much of the fuel sold in the U.S., especially on the East Coast, follows the price of Brent crude, which is down 14% since the beginning of May. The Nymex price is primarily a benchmark for some oil in the middle of the U.S.

　　 即便如此，汽油價格還是沒有趕上原油降價幅度。美國很大一部分出售的燃料是跟隨布倫特（Brent）原油價格走勢而動，尤其是東海岸地區(qū)。從5月初以來，布倫特原油價格下跌了14%。紐約商品交易所的原油價格主要是美國中部地區(qū)部分油價的基準。

　　Brent is being held relatively high by strong demand from emerging markets such as China, and lingering worries about turmoil in the Middle East, which could curtail supplies. Refiners have been reluctant to ratchet down prices, hoping to capture as much profit as possible lest prices shoot higher again, said Sander Cohan, principal at energy consultancy ESAI Inc.

　　由于中國等新興市場需求強勁，而中東亂局可能限制供應的擔憂揮之不去，布倫特油價維持在相對高的水平。能源咨詢公司ESAI Inc.首席咨詢師科漢（Sander Cohan）說，煉油公司不愿意下調價格，希望獲得最大化的利潤，以防油價再度猛漲。

　　'Typically, the retailer will raise prices in front of rising crude and be more reluctant to lower prices' when it drops, he said.

　　他說，一般來講，零售商會在原油價格上漲的時候漲價，而當原油價格下跌的時候就不那么愿意降價了。

　　Some consumers have noticed.

　　一些消費者注意到了這一現(xiàn)象。

　　"I don't understand how the oil price can fluctuate so much, and yet the price of gas has just not changed,' says Ritch Blasi, a 57-year-old telecom marketer from Middlesex, N.J. 'If a barrel of crude drives the price, there's a lot of different things that happened between that crude and when it goes into my car. And something in there is messed up."

　　新澤西州Middlesex的57歲電信業(yè)市場人員布拉西（Ritch Blasi）說，我不理解，怎么原油價格如此波動，而汽油價格根本就沒有變化；如果說價格是由原油推動的，那么從原油到加入我汽車中的汽油這個過程中就有很多不一樣的事情發(fā)生；這當中肯定有什么東西出了問題。

　　A lag may be expected, but this time around it is far more pronounced. In the second half of 2008, for example, when oil slumped 68%, gasoline prices fell 61%. Regular-grade retail gasoline was at $3.58 a gallon last week, according to the Energy Information Administration. Prices remain 33% higher than this time last year, while crude is just 11% higher.

　　汽油價格跌幅不及原油或許是在人們意料之中，但這一次的差別要顯著得多。比如在2008年下半年，原油價格下跌68%，汽油價格下跌61%。能源情報署（Energy Information Administration）數(shù)據(jù)顯示，上周常規(guī)級零售汽油價格為每加侖3.58美元，仍比去年同期高出33%，而原油價格同比僅上漲11%。

　　Many suggest that crude prices may be unlikely to fall much further, removing hopes for further relief for the economy.

　　很多人提出，原油價格可能不太可能進一步大幅下跌。這樣一來，經濟承受的壓力就無望進一步緩解。

　　In a shift from recent years, when investment flows and prices of other assets were guiding oil-price projections, analysis of supply and demand is regaining its importance. The continued thirst for oil in China and other countries has become a crucial part of that.

　　在近幾年，為原油價格預測提供指引的曾是投資資金流和其他資產的價格?，F(xiàn)在有所不同，供需分析正變得越來越重要。中國和其他國家的持續(xù)原油渴求是這種分析當中的一個至關重要的部分。

　　Nymex prices have hewed close to $80 in recent trading. Tim Evans, an oil analyst with Citi Futures Perspective, said prices near current levels are reasonably balanced given the current outlook for oil supply and demand, a view shared by several market watchers.

　　紐約商品交易所原油價格最近已經逼近80美元每桶的關口?；ㄆ炱谪浺朁c（Citi Futures Perspective）石油分析師伊萬斯(Tim Evans)說，考慮到當前的石油供需展望，當前水平附近的價格基本處于均衡水平。多位市場觀察者也持這種觀點。

　　J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. expects oil demand to grow by as much as 1.2 million barrels a day this year, despite worries that the U.S. is downshifting to another recession, with turmoil in the U.S. and Europe cutting just 250,000 barrels a day from its earlier forecast.

　　 雖然人們擔心美國正在進入又一次衰退，但摩根大通（J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.）預計，今年每日石油需求最多將增加120萬桶。歐美的亂局只讓該公司把原來的每日需求預測下調了25萬桶。

　　Only a major cratering in the global economy is likely to bring either Brent or Nymex oil prices back down to the lows seen in 2008, says Adam Sieminski, chief energy economist at Deutsche Bank.

　　德意志銀行（Deutsche Bank）首席能源分析師謝明斯基（Adam Sieminski）說，只有全球經濟陷入大崩潰，才有可能讓布倫特油價或紐約商品交易所油價跌回至2008年的低位。